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Risk analysis and responses of PV output extreme in China's whole county PV program

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  • Huang, Xi
  • Pan, Guangsheng
  • Gu, Wei
  • Gu, Zhongfan

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV), as a near-zero carbon renewable energy, plays an important role in the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Distributed PV, due to its own volatility and intermittency, is susceptible to weather impacts that create extreme output problems. This study evaluated the capacity factor (CF) over 41 years in 676 PV pilot counties in China and establishes a cost-minimization model to provide a comprehensive analysis of the extreme output risk of distributed PV power systems. The results showed that the annual average CF shows a decreasing trend on a 41-year time scale, with consequent more frequent low-PV output extreme problems. By analyzing the low-PV output extreme, the threshold gap between counties can reach more than three times, while it decreases at long time scales (7-day). Intra-provincial synergies can mitigate some of the low-PV output extreme problems, and further inter-provincial transmission or even long-duration energy storage is needed to completely solve the low-PV output extreme problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Xi & Pan, Guangsheng & Gu, Wei & Gu, Zhongfan, 2026. "Risk analysis and responses of PV output extreme in China's whole county PV program," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:259:y:2026:i:c:s0960148125027430
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.125079
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