Exploring behavioral strategies for third-party market cooperation in renewable energy projects: a perspective on addressing climate change

Third-party market cooperation in renewable energy projects is crucial for addressing the global energy crisis. However, extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, rainstorms, and floods, significantly undermine the resilience of energy infrastructure. The challenge of mitigating the adverse effects of climate change on third-party market cooperation in renewable energy projects has become a global concern. To address the limitations of traditional deterministic evolutionary game models, this study introduces a stochastic evolutionary game model by incorporating Gaussian white noise. This model explores the strategic choices and evolutionary processes of Chinese-funded, foreign-funded, and host-country enterprises, as well as the impact of various climate factors on evolutionary equilibrium and enterprise decision-making. Our findings suggest that the strategic behavior of participants exhibits significant fluctuations under random disturbances. As the intensity of disturbances increases, the amplitude of fluctuations intensifies, while the speed at which participants evolve towards a stable state accelerates. When the probability of climate change shocks exceeds 0.5, the willingness of enterprises to respond to these shocks increases significantly, with Chinese-funded and foreign-funded enterprises demonstrating greater sensitivity. The impact of climate change shock loss proportion on the strategic choices of Chinese-funded and host-country enterprises shows directional consistency. As the proportion of climate change losses increases, both enterprises are more inclined to adopt enhanced strategies. Only when the proportion of climate change shock losses exceeds a certain threshold of 0.2 do foreign-funded enterprises tend to strengthen their strategies. This study provides an important practical foundation for multinational enterprises to formulate climate-adaptive strategies and enhance their ability to mitigate climate change risks in third-party market cooperation for renewable energy projects.