Quantifying the 2050 scenarios for Colombia's electricity sector transition

Colombia's electricity supply shows low carbon intensity; however, future demand growth and concerns over energy security raise questions about its path toward complete decarbonization. Using a dynamic and regionally disaggregated simulation model, this study examines whether Colombia could achieve a zero-carbon electricity supply by 2050. Developed with system dynamics methodology, the model integrates endogenous capacity expansion, generation dispatch, and hydropower reservoir dynamics, offering a novel representation of long-term electricity system behavior under uncertainty. It encompasses seven technologies and is divided into five operational regions, reflecting spatial resource availability and operational diversity. Four exploratory scenarios are created based on two key uncertainties: policy support for the energy transition and national economic strength. Results indicate a fully decarbonized electricity supply by 2050 is feasible under scenarios featuring high fossil fuel prices and strong policy support. In these cases, solar and wind could contribute between 4 % and 26 % of total generation, while fossil fuels drop below 7 % or are phased out. However, additional interventions would be necessary in less favorable policy or economic contexts to reach complete decarbonization. This work offers new insights by explicitly modeling regional dynamics, technology interactions, and long-term feedback processes under uncertainty, providing actionable evidence to guide Colombia's energy transition planning.