Uncertainty-aware demand estimation and market clearing of flexible ramping products in power systems dominated by renewable energy

The rapid integration of uncertain and variable renewable energy sources (RESs) leads to the imbalance in power systems. Flexible ramping products (FRP) that aims at managing uncertainty of renewable energy efficiently are implemented to enhance the system flexibility in the power markets. However, traditional methods that exclusively rely on net load deviations at dispatch endpoints are insufficient to capture the uncertainty and intra-interval variability (IIV) by renewable energy, thereby challenging the rational procurement of FRP. In this context, this paper proposes a novel framework for uncertainty-aware demand estimation and market clearing of FRP in power systems dominated by renewable energy. A refined intra-interval flexibility demand model is proposed to statistically characterize variations and uncertainty of RESs production by incorporating high-resolution data. This paper proposes novel mathematical morphological filters by using customized structural elements and hybrid operators to effectively estimate the FRP capacity requirements from the massive flexibility demand curves. The multi-stage FRP demand-price curves are then constructed based on the estimation for coordinated day-ahead and real-time market clearing. Numerical experiments based on modified IEEE 39-bus test system with the RESs and load data demonstrate the significant advantages of the proposed method in improving FRP demand estimation accuracy, optimizing market clearing efficiency, and enhancing the flexibility to manage RES-induced uncertainty.