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A novel bi-period solar radiation model for decomposing daily values into hourly values

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  • Guo, Chongzhi
  • Yao, Wanxiang
  • Fang, Zhaozhao
  • Yue, Q.I.
  • Jiang, Jinming
  • Huang, Yin
  • Gao, Weijun

Abstract

The global energy crisis and environmental pollution issues are becoming increasingly severe, with solar energy being a key solution. However, there is a need for further research on high-precision solar radiation daily value decomposition models. This study first utilizes long-term hourly solar radiation data from 12 cities across five climate zones in China from 2001 to 2023 to revise the Jain model, establishing the Jain-modified model. Additionally, the historical average model based on 20 years of hourly solar radiation data was developed. Finally, the mixed model was created using nonlinear regression analysis based on these two models. The results indicate that the mixed model significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to existing models, with an average improvement of 3.24 % and a maximum single-day improvement of 11.63 %. Moreover, it outperforms other models in cities such as Harbin, Shenyang, Lincang, and Kunming. This method provides new theoretical support for solar energy resource assessment and solar system design.

Suggested Citation

  • Guo, Chongzhi & Yao, Wanxiang & Fang, Zhaozhao & Yue, Q.I. & Jiang, Jinming & Huang, Yin & Gao, Weijun, 2025. "A novel bi-period solar radiation model for decomposing daily values into hourly values," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:250:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125009991
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123337
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