The spatial-temporal characterization of the driving factors of China's energy transition and prediction of future transition potential

In the dual challenges of climate change and environmental governance, as a core power engine, the transition process of energy was directly related to the sustainable development. It could provide a scientific basis for regional energy transition planning by revealing provincial energy transition characteristics, influencing factors and transition potential. Thus, entropy method was adopted to evaluation of energy transition levels. The geographical and temporal weighted regression model was applied to explore the factors influencing energy transition and regional heterogeneity. Energy transition potential was predicted using GM(1,1) model. The results demonstrated that: (1) each province's energy transition fluctuated upward in an “inverse L-shape” over time. The national distribution was “higher in west and lower in east, higher in south and lower in north”. (2) Energy transition had a significant positive spatial correlation, with significant features of spatial aggregation. Economic growth provided significantly positive influence on energy transition, while urbanization, industry structure and environmental regulation had a significant negative influence. Moreover, the effects of these elements had regional heterogeneity. (3) There was a remarkable spatial difference in the provincial energy transition potential, which showed an incremental increase from west to east. Finally, suggestions were proposed to promote energy transition.