IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v249y2025ics0960148125008961.html

The spatial-temporal characterization of the driving factors of China's energy transition and prediction of future transition potential

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Zengchuan
  • Xi, Yanling
  • Li, Li
  • Lei, Yalin
  • Wu, Sanmang
  • Cui, Yanfang
  • Chen, Jiabin

Abstract

In the dual challenges of climate change and environmental governance, as a core power engine, the transition process of energy was directly related to the sustainable development. It could provide a scientific basis for regional energy transition planning by revealing provincial energy transition characteristics, influencing factors and transition potential. Thus, entropy method was adopted to evaluation of energy transition levels. The geographical and temporal weighted regression model was applied to explore the factors influencing energy transition and regional heterogeneity. Energy transition potential was predicted using GM(1,1) model. The results demonstrated that: (1) each province's energy transition fluctuated upward in an “inverse L-shape” over time. The national distribution was “higher in west and lower in east, higher in south and lower in north”. (2) Energy transition had a significant positive spatial correlation, with significant features of spatial aggregation. Economic growth provided significantly positive influence on energy transition, while urbanization, industry structure and environmental regulation had a significant negative influence. Moreover, the effects of these elements had regional heterogeneity. (3) There was a remarkable spatial difference in the provincial energy transition potential, which showed an incremental increase from west to east. Finally, suggestions were proposed to promote energy transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Zengchuan & Xi, Yanling & Li, Li & Lei, Yalin & Wu, Sanmang & Cui, Yanfang & Chen, Jiabin, 2025. "The spatial-temporal characterization of the driving factors of China's energy transition and prediction of future transition potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:249:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125008961
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2025.123234
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148125008961
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2025.123234?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hultman, Nathan E. & Malone, Elizabeth L. & Runci, Paul & Carlock, Gregory & Anderson, Kate L., 2012. "Factors in low-carbon energy transformations: Comparing nuclear and bioenergy in Brazil, Sweden, and the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 131-146.
    2. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Yang, C.W., 2008. "Causal relationship between energy consumption and GDP growth revisited: A dynamic panel data approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 41-54, August.
    3. Michał Bernard Pietrzak & Bartłomiej Igliński & Wojciech Kujawski & Paweł Iwański, 2021. "Energy Transition in Poland—Assessment of the Renewable Energy Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Su, Xiang & Tan, Junlan, 2023. "Regional energy transition path and the role of government support and resource endowment in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    5. Madurai Elavarasan, Rajvikram & Pugazhendhi, Rishi & Jamal, Taskin & Dyduch, Joanna & Arif, M.T. & Manoj Kumar, Nallapaneni & Shafiullah, GM & Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Nadarajah, Mithulananthan, 2021. "Envisioning the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through the lens of energy sustainability (SDG 7) in the post-COVID-19 world," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    6. ., 2024. "Climate change and energy transitions," Chapters, in: Unpacking the G20, chapter 5, pages 84-102, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Vera, Ivan & Langlois, Lucille, 2007. "Energy indicators for sustainable development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 875-882.
    8. Neofytou, H. & Nikas, A. & Doukas, H., 2020. "Sustainable energy transition readiness: A multicriteria assessment index," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    9. Youngho Chang & Ridwan D. Rusli & Jackson The, 2024. "German Energy Transition and Energy Security," DEM Discussion Paper Series 24-09, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    10. Yuan, Chaoqing & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng, 2016. "Comparison of China's primary energy consumption forecasting by using ARIMA (the autoregressive integrated moving average) model and GM(1,1) model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 384-390.
    11. Shan, Yuli & Liu, Jianghua & Liu, Zhu & Xu, Xinwanghao & Shao, Shuai & Wang, Peng & Guan, Dabo, 2016. "New provincial CO2 emission inventories in China based on apparent energy consumption data and updated emission factors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 742-750.
    12. Qin, Yong & Xu, Zeshui & Wang, Xinxin & Škare, Marinko, 2023. "The effects of financial institutions on the green energy transition: A cross-sectional panel study," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 524-542.
    13. He, Miao & Zhang, Wenxia & Du, Xinghua & Zhang, Yang & Cui, Xiaoshuo & Huang, Junli & Chen, Xin & Gao, Hui, 2025. "A study on accelerate the hydrogen energy industry adjustment and regain investment confidence—Based on Econ-ESG insight," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ono, Ryoga & Delage, Rémi & Nakata, Toshihiko, 2025. "Gasification-based biomass-to-X system for biomass community: Supply to transportation and industrial sector considering hard-to-abate sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).
    2. Mo, Shu & Liu, Xinghua, 2025. "Strengthening the resilience of urban energy systems amid renewable energy transition: A new method based on double machine learning," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Wang, Hu & Wang, Feng & Liu, Juan & Ling, Rui & Zhang, Hao & Jiang, Hongfei, 2026. "Is China's energy transition pace driven by the supply-side or the demand-side?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nathalie Spittler & Ganna Gladkykh & Arnaud Diemer & Brynhildur Davidsdottir, 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development," Post-Print hal-02127724, HAL.
    2. Magdalena Tutak & Jarosław Brodny & Peter Bindzár, 2021. "Assessing the Level of Energy and Climate Sustainability in the European Union Countries in the Context of the European Green Deal Strategy and Agenda 2030," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Xiao-Ying Dong & Qiying Ran & Yu Hao, 2019. "On the nonlinear relationship between energy consumption and economic development in China: new evidence from panel data threshold estimations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1837-1857, July.
    4. Madurai Elavarasan, Rajvikram & Pugazhendhi, Rishi & Irfan, Muhammad & Mihet-Popa, Lucian & Campana, Pietro Elia & Khan, Irfan Ahmad, 2022. "A novel Sustainable Development Goal 7 composite index as the paradigm for energy sustainability assessment: A case study from Europe," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    5. Zhixiong Weng & Yuqi Song & Hao Ma & Zhong Ma & Tingting Liu, 2023. "Forecasting energy demand, structure, and CO2 emission: a case study of Beijing, China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(9), pages 10369-10391, September.
    6. Pramit Verma & Justyna Chodkowska‐Miszczuk & Agata Lewandowska & Łukasz Wiśniewski, 2023. "Local resilience for low‐carbon transition in Poland: Frameworks, conditions and opportunities for Central European countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 1278-1295, June.
    7. Yue Tang & Shixiang Li & Feng Wu, 2025. "How Does Carbon Emissions Trading Impact Energy Transition? A Perspective Based on Local Government Behavior," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-20, June.
    8. Nathalie Spittler & Ganna Gladkykh & Arnaud Diemer & Brynhildur Davidsdottir, 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-22, April.
    9. Chen, Jie & Huang, Shoujun & Kamran, Hafiz Waqas, 2023. "Empowering sustainability practices through energy transition for sustainable development goal 7: The role of energy patents and natural resources among European Union economies through advanced panel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    10. Gao, Xiangming & Ji, Xinliang & Wang, Rong & Yu, Jian, 2025. "The effect of artificial intelligence on energy transition: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Kozera, Agnieszka & Satoła, Łukasz & Standar, Aldona & Dworakowska-Raj, Małgorzata, 2022. "Regional diversity of low-carbon investment support from EU funds in the 2014–2020 financial perspective based on the example of Polish municipalities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    12. Zhou, Dequn & Chen, Ting & Ding, Hao & Wang, Qunwei, 2024. "Tracking the provincial energy transition in China: A comprehensive index," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    13. Fan Lin & Danyang Xie, 2025. "Balancing Climate Change and Economic Development: The Case of China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 88(11), pages 3091-3150, November.
    14. Akpınar, Esra Nur & Çitil, Mücahit & Alofaysan, Hind & Barut, Abdulkadir & Erdem, Azad, 2025. "Robotic transformation and energy transition in China: A new era of innovation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    15. Xu, Si & Zhang, You & Chen, Lan & Leong, Lin Woon & Muda, Iskandar & Ali, Anis, 2023. "How Fintech and effective governance derive the greener energy transition: Evidence from panel-corrected standard errors approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Bogdzinski, Heidi & Sergio, Ivan & Wedemeier, Jan, 2025. "Unveiling the impact of green energy on green productivity: A focus on hydrogen and the green transition in European regions," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1064-1082.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hoang, Thi Hong Van & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in India: New evidence from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 199-212.
    18. Tiziana La Rocca & Maurizio La Rocca & Francesco Fasano & Alfio Cariola, 2023. "Does a country's environmental policy affect the value of small and medium sized enterprises liquidity in the energy sector?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 277-290, January.
    19. Ranjan Aneja & Umer J. Banday & Tanzeem Hasnat & Mustafa Koçoglu, 2017. "Renewable and Non-renewable Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Panel Error Correction Model," Jindal Journal of Business Research, , vol. 6(1), pages 76-85, June.
    20. Weiqiang Zhu & Yun Zhang, 2024. "Household Energy Clean Transition Mechanisms under Market Failures: A Government Financing Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-29, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:249:y:2025:i:c:s0960148125008961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.