Resilience of the global maritime LNG network: From static Bow-tie to dynamic SIR modeling

The transport security of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a major challenge in global energy supply chains. Understanding the impact of port disruptions and strengthening the system's resilience are critical to ensuring global energy trade. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework for assessing the resilience of the LNG transport network. First, we construct a directed and weighted network model of the LNG transport system, and apply multidimensional centrality measures to evaluate the importance of individual ports. Next, we assess changes in the network structure caused by intentional port node disruptions, employing a Bow-tie network structure analysis. Additionally, we introduce a novel weighted network efficiency metric that incorporates link directionality and weight to assess the static resilience of the network. Furthermore, we develop an SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) transmission model that integrates relative weighted influence metrics for each port to showcase the dynamic spread of risk following a disruption at a port node. Finally, a dynamic resilience assessment framework leverages several key metrics to enhance a better understanding of the resilience of critical LNG transit ports. Our modeling methodology and evaluation framework offer a theoretical foundation for stakeholders to mitigate unexpected risks and safeguard against the diffusion of disruption risk.