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Seismic resilience assessment of substation systems: A threshold-based probabilistic index

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  • Wang, Kaige
  • Zheng, Shansuo
  • Cai, Guowei

Abstract

As a critical hub for power transmission, substations must exhibit resilience during seismic events. This study first explores the definition of resilience thresholds and the principles of qualitative analysis, providing valuable insights into scientific study of thresholds within the context of Critical Infrastructure Systems (CIS). Based on this foundation, a threshold-based probability index is proposed, followed by establishing resilience thresholds for substations within a three levels seismic fortification framework. Additionally, the cascading effects of substations are simulated based on relational theory, leading to the development of a system model that incorporates physical and functional constraints. This model serves as a theoretical basis for assessing the seismic resilience of substations. The results demonstrate that this method effectively captures the resilience level of the substation and can guide its resilience management based on measurement outcomes. Finally, the limitations of the proposed method are examined, and potential solutions are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Kaige & Zheng, Shansuo & Cai, Guowei, 2026. "Seismic resilience assessment of substation systems: A threshold-based probabilistic index," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:265:y:2026:i:pa:s095183202500732x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111532
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