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Probabilistic assessment of a road network subjected to rainfall-induced landslides

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  • Wu, Chenguang
  • Zhang, Jie
  • Yang, Cheng
  • Lu, Dagang

Abstract

A realistic assessment of the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on a road network is crucial for road planning and risk management. However, analyzing the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on a road network involves various uncertainties, including those related to rainfall, the occurrence of landslides during rainfall, and the runout distance of landslides. In this paper, a probabilistic method is suggested to assess the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on a road network, explicitly considering these uncertainties. In the suggested method, a copula-based bivariate distribution is used to model stochastic rainfall events. A physically-based initiation and runout model is used to assess the rainfall-induced landslides, enabling the establishment of road network fragility under these landslides. With the suggested method, the mean annual exceedance rate of the performance loss of the road network due to rainfall-induced landslides can be estimated. The method is demonstrated through a case study in Linhai County, China. The suggested method provides a practical means to assess the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on a road network.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Chenguang & Zhang, Jie & Yang, Cheng & Lu, Dagang, 2025. "Probabilistic assessment of a road network subjected to rainfall-induced landslides," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:264:y:2025:i:pb:s095183202500609x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111409
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