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Reliability assessment methods considering failure correlation and importance analysis for multiple progressive damage

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  • Gao, Zhixuan
  • Jiang, Deyin
  • Zhuang, Xinchen
  • Cui, Weimin
  • Yu, Tianxiang

Abstract

Aircraft complex mechanisms are susceptible to multiple progressive damage in operation, where a particular form of damage can have an effect on the strength of another through the mechanism transmission. The results of reliability analysis that ignores the correlation between them will deviate from the actual situation. To address the above problems, based on the characteristics of multiple progressive damage, two correlation models of multiple progressive damage are established, and a reliability assessment method considering the correlation of multiple progressive damage is proposed. Based on the vine copula theory, the correlation model of multiple progressive damage systems at different times was established, and the reliability of the system was calculated based on Monte Carlo method. Based on the importance theory, the importance analysis method is further proposed for multiple progressive damage. The results of the engineering case study show that ignoring the correlation between multiple progressive damage can lead to an inaccurate system reliability assessment, the maximum relative error to the reliability results for the independent case is 25 %. And the types of damage that need to be focused on maintenance are obtained by importance analysis, and the method provides a reference for the reliability assessment of complex mechanisms in aerospace.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Zhixuan & Jiang, Deyin & Zhuang, Xinchen & Cui, Weimin & Yu, Tianxiang, 2025. "Reliability assessment methods considering failure correlation and importance analysis for multiple progressive damage," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:264:y:2025:i:pb:s0951832025005903
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111389
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