IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v263y2025ics0951832025005022.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling urban transportation safety resilience under extreme rainstorms: A catastrophe theory approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Fei
  • Zhang, Yujie
  • Liu, Qing
  • Guo, Yaru
  • Yang, Zhijie
  • Zhang, Jiaju

Abstract

Extreme rainstorm disasters severely affect urban transportation safety. To scientifically assess urban transportation safety resilience (UTSR11Urban transportation safety resilience) and its evolutionary process under extreme rainstorm disasters, this study proposes a novel assessment method by modeling the UTSR using the catastrophe theory approach. First, a safety framework for the urban transportation system is constructed, and catastrophe theory is applied to analyze catastrophic effects on the system. Second, factors affecting UTSR are identified, and their relationships are analyzed using a stock and flow model. Finally, the effectiveness of the UTSR dynamic simulation model is analyzed using the case study of an extreme rainstorm event in Xi'an, China. The results reveal that increasing the investment levels of government regulation effort (GRE22Government regulation effort), information synergy degree (ISD33Information synergy degree), and municipal drainage effectiveness (MDE44Municipal drainage effectiveness) leads to modeled increases in UTSR levels by 59.44%, 50.18%, and 16.79%, respectively. The results demonstrate that strengthening GRE and ISD significantly enhances UTSR, while MDE has a relatively minor impact. This study contributes a new theoretical perspective and practical modeling tool for capturing abrupt resilience transitions, offering detailed management strategies for enhancing UTSR when facing extreme rainstorms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Fei & Zhang, Yujie & Liu, Qing & Guo, Yaru & Yang, Zhijie & Zhang, Jiaju, 2025. "Modeling urban transportation safety resilience under extreme rainstorms: A catastrophe theory approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:263:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025005022
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111301
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832025005022
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2025.111301?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:263:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025005022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.