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Uncertainty evaluation of the debris flow impact considering spatially varying basal friction and solid concentration

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  • Luo, Hongyu
  • Zhang, Limin
  • He, Jian
  • Zhou, Jiawen

Abstract

The inherent spatial variability of soil is reported to significantly impact landslide debris behaviors. In this study, the effect of spatial variability on the inundation and impact processes of debris flow is investigated using a multi-phase depth-averaged model. The dynamic process of a debris flow, considering spatial variabilities of basal friction and initial solid concentration, is explored via Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that due to the flow channel constrain and spatial averaging, the influences of spatial variability on the global impact of debris flow are not significant. However, remarkable influences on the local impact are found. From the upstream of flow channel to the downstream of river, there is a decreasing trend in uncertainties regarding the material composition and flow dynamics at local spots. In the flow channel, the mean values of flow depths are smaller than those in the deterministic analysis, while those of flow velocities are larger. In the river, both the mean values of flow depths and velocities are close to those in the deterministic analysis while their variations remain significant even downstream of river. The findings provide insights into the spatial variability effects on debris flow impact and facilitate risk assessment.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Hongyu & Zhang, Limin & He, Jian & Zhou, Jiawen, 2025. "Uncertainty evaluation of the debris flow impact considering spatially varying basal friction and solid concentration," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:263:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025004843
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ding, Jiayi & Zhou, Jianfang & Cai, Wei, 2023. "An efficient variable selection-based Kriging model method for the reliability analysis of slopes with spatially variable soils," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    2. Yang, Haoran & Chen, Chen & Zhao, Wenjian & Lu, Xiang & Zhang, Pengtao & Xue, Jianghan, 2025. "A novel reliability method for assessing dam slope stability by incorporating intrinsic correlations of rockfill materials," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    3. Ma, Guotao & Rezania, Mohammad & Mousavi Nezhad, Mohaddeseh & Phoon, Kok-Kwang, 2024. "Multivariate copula-based framework for stochastic analysis of landslide runout distance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    4. Hualin Cheng & Martin Mergili & Yu Huang, 2023. "Numerical analysis of debris flow erosion in the mountainous areas affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake using a depth-averaged two-phase model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(1), pages 193-212, March.
    5. Liu, Qiang & Tang, Aiping & Huang, Delong & Huang, Ziyuan & Zhang, Bin & Xu, Xiuchen, 2022. "Total probabilistic measure for the potential risk of regional roads exposed to landslides," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Yinwang & Li, Weiye & Wu, Zhenyu, 2026. "Slope reliability analysis of high rockfill dams considering stress-coupled spatial variability of friction angle," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 265(PA).

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