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Optimal intensity measure and probabilistic seismic demand model for the assessment of historical masonry buildings: application to two case studies

Author

Listed:
  • Caicedo, Daniel
  • Tomić, Igor
  • Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh
  • Bernardo, Vasco
  • Beyer, Katrin
  • Lourenço, Paulo B.

Abstract

This paper presents a probabilistic seismic demand model (PSDM) as a relationship between intensity measures (IMs) and engineering demand parameters (EDPs) for the seismic assessment of two case studies resembling historical masonry buildings. The first one is representative of stiff monumental buildings, and the second of tall and slender masonry buildings. Both structures are modelled in the OpenSees software using three-dimensional macroelements that consider both the in-plane and out-of-plane response of masonry walls. A set of 100 accelerograms are selected to represent the seismic excitation. After full characterization of the seismic input in terms of IMs, both buildings are subjected to the action of these accelerograms to study the maximum structural response in the context of cloud analysis. The most suitable IMs are determined subsequently under the notions of efficiency, practicability, proficiency, and sufficiency. In addition, a composed measure is proposed as a linear combination in logarithmic space of the IMs that exhibit the best coefficient of determination (R2) within the EDP vs. IM regression. This optimal composed measure is determined through machine learning-based Lasso regression. In the final stage of the study, fragility curves are derived to measure the likelihood of exceedance of certain levels of average roof displacement in terms of IM parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Caicedo, Daniel & Tomić, Igor & Karimzadeh, Shaghayegh & Bernardo, Vasco & Beyer, Katrin & Lourenço, Paulo B., 2025. "Optimal intensity measure and probabilistic seismic demand model for the assessment of historical masonry buildings: application to two case studies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:261:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025003503
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111149
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Zhao, Yan-Gang & Qin, Miao-Jun & Lu, Zhao-Hui & Zhang, Long-Wen, 2021. "Seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants considering structural parameter uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Asgarkhani, N. & Kazemi, F. & Jankowski, R. & Formisano, A., 2026. "Dynamic ensemble-learning model for seismic risk assessment of masonry infilled steel structures incorporating soil-foundation-structure interaction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PA).
    2. Li, Si-Qi, 2026. "Probabilistic seismic risk analysis models for building portfolios considering ground motion intensities and duration sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PA).

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