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Simulation supported Bayesian network approach for performance assessment of complex infrastructure systems

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  • Songhori, Mohsen Jafari
  • Fecarotti, Claudia
  • van Houtum, Geert-Jan

Abstract

With increasing traffic demand, aging infrastructure and higher user expectations, bridge network managers seek tools by which they can maintain the normal service of bridge networks. This paper presents a novel modeling framework for assessing the dependability and performance of bridge transportation networks to support maintenance decisions that balance both owner and user perspectives. Bridge conditions, characterized by their residual capacity, directly impact network travel times. This relationship necessitates extending beyond traditional binary state representations to consider multiple performance and service levels. We adopt expected travel time as a key indicator of network availability, requiring multistate modeling approaches. However, the combination of multistate modeling and complex network interdependencies makes performance assessment particularly challenging.

Suggested Citation

  • Songhori, Mohsen Jafari & Fecarotti, Claudia & van Houtum, Geert-Jan, 2025. "Simulation supported Bayesian network approach for performance assessment of complex infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:261:y:2025:i:c:s0951832025002467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2025.111045
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