IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v100y2012icp125-132.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Monte Carlo simulation for the assessment of Bayesian updating in dynamic systems

Author

Listed:
  • Targoutzidis, Antonis

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to explore the effectiveness of Bayesian updating, especially in dynamic systems, where failure probability is variant in time. Through the use of Monte Carlo simulation it was tested whether (a) Bayesian updating and (b) dynamic behavior of failure probability lead to more risky behavior. The results indicate that Bayesian updating systematically lead to more risky behavior of the system, unless the prior failure probability estimates have been severely underestimated and that dynamic systems lead to more risky behavior only when Bayesian updating is applied.

Suggested Citation

  • Targoutzidis, Antonis, 2012. "A Monte Carlo simulation for the assessment of Bayesian updating in dynamic systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 125-132.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:100:y:2012:i:c:p:125-132
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832011002833
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guarro, Sergio & Yau, Michael, 2009. "On the nature and practical handling of the Bayesian aggregation anomaly," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(6), pages 1050-1056.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rougé, Charles & Mathias, Jean-Denis & Deffuant, Guillaume, 2014. "Relevance of control theory to design and maintenance problems in time-variant reliability: The case of stochastic viability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 250-260.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:100:y:2012:i:c:p:125-132. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.