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Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Hirvonen, Kalle
  • Gilligan, Daniel O.
  • Leight, Jessica
  • Tambet, Heleene
  • Villa, Victor

Abstract

We assess whether layering an ultra-poor graduation program on Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) protects women and their households from localized weather shocks. Using panel data from a large cluster-randomized trial matched with detailed weather records, we identify community-level exposure to dryness shocks. Women who are exposed to dryness shocks experience deteriorating nutritional status (in conjunction with declining household food security and assets) and a significant increase in the risk of intimate partner violence. However, access to the graduation program fully buffers women from any increase in intimate partner violence, and partially buffers women and their households against other adverse effects. Further analysis suggests that improved household savings likely drives the program’s protective impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Hirvonen, Kalle & Gilligan, Daniel O. & Leight, Jessica & Tambet, Heleene & Villa, Victor, 2026. "Do ultra-poor graduation programs build women’s resilience to weather shocks? Evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:261:y:2026:i:c:s0047272726001696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105733
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    JEL classification:

    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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