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The impact of international conflict on cross-border commercial dispute resolution

Author

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  • Shchetinin, Dmitrii
  • Avdeev, Stanislav

Abstract

International trade depends on the expectation that courts will protect commercial interests when disputes arise. With the growing number of international conflicts, it is crucial to know whether this expectation is met in practice. We examine the effect of the 2014 annexation of Crimea on the enforcement rate of foreign decisions by Russian and Ukrainian judges. We assemble novel data on the entire universe of Russian and Ukrainian court decisions concerning the enforcement of foreign decisions resolving cross-border commercial disputes. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that the enforcement rate of Ukrainian (Russian) decisions in Russia (Ukraine) fell by 26% (33%) after the annexation. We show that courts increasingly justified refusals through discretionary legal grounds and undue-notification claims. Our findings provide the first causal evidence that international conflict affects both judicial decision-making and compliance with commercial treaties.

Suggested Citation

  • Shchetinin, Dmitrii & Avdeev, Stanislav, 2026. "The impact of international conflict on cross-border commercial dispute resolution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:260:y:2026:i:c:s0047272726001441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105708
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • K33 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - International Law

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