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Ballots, budgets and bricks: Brexit and the polarisation of individual economic behaviours

Author

Listed:
  • Kuang, Pei
  • Luca, Davide
  • Wei, Zhiwu

Abstract

Does political polarisation influence actual economic behaviours? Using British nationally representative surveys and administrative data, we document how the Brexit referendum triggered stark divergences in individual micro and macro expectations between Leave and Remain supporters. Compared to existing research, we show how these polarising effects were driven by a specific policy issue and only marginally related to traditional partisan identities. We also demonstrate how these diverging beliefs influenced major real financial decisions. Leavers became more likely to purchase durable goods and engage in housing transactions, and areas with higher proportions of Leave voters experienced increased housing transaction volumes and rising prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuang, Pei & Luca, Davide & Wei, Zhiwu, 2026. "Ballots, budgets and bricks: Brexit and the polarisation of individual economic behaviours," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:259:y:2026:i:c:s0047272726001027
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105666
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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