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Weather and U.S. railways: risk, adaptation, and congestion

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  • Du, Xinming
  • Wilson, Andrew J.

Abstract

Railway operation is known to be affected by the weather, but the magnitude of these effects has not been estimated at scale. We investigate the effect of weather on U.S. railways using accident and performance data spanning 1997–2022. We find that exposure to temperatures over 86 ∘F (under 5 ∘F) leads to a 9.5% (46%) increase in accidents and a 57% (222%) increase in deaths. Railroads are also adapted to their local climate (with warmer places exhibiting lower sensitivity to heat), learn from prior accidents, and change train speed and throughput in response to weather. Due to the fixed, network nature of railways, we discover that local responses to weather result in a negative externality of propagating delays. Our findings suggest that public funding for rail upgrades may improve both safety and performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Xinming & Wilson, Andrew J., 2026. "Weather and U.S. railways: risk, adaptation, and congestion," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:255:y:2026:i:c:s0047272726000083
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2026.105572
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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