Can artificial intelligence serve as an accelerator for carbon reduction in supply chains within China's manufacturing sector? — Evidence from the national new generation artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot zones

Low-carbon operations and supply-chain decarbonization have emerged as central pathways toward net-zero targets. We exploit China's Artificial Intelligence Innovation and Development Pilot Zones(AIIDPZ) policy as a quasi-natural experiment to examine how artificial intelligence reshapes carbon governance in manufacturing supply chains. Using data on A-share listed manufacturing firms and their upstream and downstream partners from 2016 to 2022, we apply a multi-period difference-in-differences model and find the AIIDPZ policy significantly reduces focal firms' emissions through supply chain spillovers. Mechanism analyses show AI effectively reduces focal firms' carbon emissions through digital transformation, supply chain efficiency, and energy technology innovation. Heterogeneity analyses further show stronger effects among firms in heavily polluting industries, firms with higher customer concentration, and firms located in regions with weaker environmental governance. Overall, the findings offer policy-relevant evidence on the role of frontier technologies in advancing sustainable supply-chain management and shaping decarbonization strategies for climate mitigation.