IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/proeco/v292y2026ics0925527325001811.html

Optimal hour-ahead commitment and storage decisions of wind power producers

Author

Listed:
  • Karakoyun, Ece Cigdem
  • Avci, Harun
  • Huh, Woonghee Tim
  • Kocaman, Ayse Selin
  • Nadar, Emre

Abstract

Renewable energy generators often rely on their battery deployments to meet their commitments in electricity markets. We consider the joint energy commitment and storage problem for a wind farm paired with a battery. The power producer decides, in each hour of a finite planning horizon, how much energy to commit to dispatching or purchasing for the next hour, how much wind energy to generate, and how much energy to charge or discharge. The power producer pays a penalty cost if they do not fully meet their commitment. Using a Markov decision process model under uncertainties in electricity price (assumed to be positive) and wind speed, we first prove the optimality of a state-dependent threshold policy for the power producer’s problem. This policy partitions the state space into several disjoint domains, each associated with a different action type, making it optimal to bring storage and commitment levels to different threshold pairs in each domain. We then employ our structural results to develop a heuristic solution procedure in a more general setting where the electricity price can also be negative. Numerical results show the high efficiency and scalability of this procedure. It provides solutions with an average deviation of only 0.3% from optimality and achieves a speedup of two to three orders of magnitude compared to the standard dynamic programming algorithm, reducing computation times from several hours to just a few minutes.

Suggested Citation

  • Karakoyun, Ece Cigdem & Avci, Harun & Huh, Woonghee Tim & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Nadar, Emre, 2026. "Optimal hour-ahead commitment and storage decisions of wind power producers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:292:y:2026:i:c:s0925527325001811
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109696
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925527325001811
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ijpe.2025.109696?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chaves-Ávila, José Pablo & van der Veen, Reinier A.C. & Hakvoort, Rudi A., 2014. "The interplay between imbalance pricing mechanisms and network congestions – Analysis of the German electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 52-61.
    2. Geoffrey G. Parker & Burcu Tan & Osman Kazan, 2019. "Electric Power Industry: Operational and Public Policy Challenges and Opportunities," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(11), pages 2738-2777, November.
    3. Karakoyun, Ece Cigdem & Avci, Harun & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Nadar, Emre, 2023. "Deviations from commitments: Markov decision process formulations for the role of energy storage," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    4. Xiaoshan Peng & Owen Q. Wu & Gilvan C. Souza, 2024. "Renewable, Flexible, and Storage Capacities: Friends or Foes?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 1730-1749, September.
    5. Eicke, Anselm & Ruhnau, Oliver & Hirth, Lion, 2021. "Electricity balancing as a market equilibrium: An instrument-based estimation of supply and demand for imbalance energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Nils Löhndorf & David Wozabal & Stefan Minner, 2013. "Optimizing Trading Decisions for Hydro Storage Systems Using Approximate Dual Dynamic Programming," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 810-823, August.
    7. Yangfang (Helen) Zhou & Alan Scheller‐Wolf & Nicola Secomandi & Stephen Smith, 2019. "Managing Wind‐Based Electricity Generation in the Presence of Storage and Transmission Capacity," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 970-989, April.
    8. Jae Ho Kim & Warren B. Powell, 2011. "Optimal Energy Commitments with Storage and Intermittent Supply," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1347-1360, December.
    9. Sanajaoba Singh, Sarangthem & Fernandez, Eugene, 2018. "Modeling, size optimization and sensitivity analysis of a remote hybrid renewable energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 719-731.
    10. Tsao, Yu-Chung & Vu, Thuy-Linh, 2023. "Distributed energy storage system planning in relation to renewable energy investment," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    11. Glaum, Philipp & Hofmann, Fabian, 2023. "Leveraging the existing German transmission grid with dynamic line rating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    12. Ranaweera, Iromi & Midtgård, Ole-Morten, 2016. "Optimization of operational cost for a grid-supporting PV system with battery storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 262-272.
    13. Finnah, Benedikt & Gönsch, Jochen, 2021. "Optimizing trading decisions of wind power plants with hybrid energy storage systems using backwards approximate dynamic programming," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    14. Yangfang (Helen) Zhou & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Nicola Secomandi & Stephen Smith, 2016. "Electricity Trading and Negative Prices: Storage vs. Disposal," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(3), pages 880-898, March.
    15. Daniel R. Jiang & Warren B. Powell, 2015. "Optimal Hour-Ahead Bidding in the Real-Time Electricity Market with Battery Storage Using Approximate Dynamic Programming," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 27(3), pages 525-543, August.
    16. Bergler, Julian & Heim, Sven & Hüschelrath, Kai, 2017. "Strategic capacity withholding through failures in the German-Austrian electricity market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 210-221.
    17. V., Ernesto Guerra & H., Eugenio Bobenrieth & H., Juan Bobenrieth & Wright, Brian D., 2023. "Endogenous thresholds in energy prices: Modeling and empirical estimation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Fernandez, E. & Albizu, I. & Bedialauneta, M.T. & Mazon, A.J. & Leite, P.T., 2016. "Review of dynamic line rating systems for wind power integration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 80-92.
    19. Emre Nadar & Mustafa Akan & Alan Scheller-Wolf, 2016. "Experimental Results Indicating Lattice-Dependent Policies May Be Optimal for General Assemble-To-Order Systems," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 25(4), pages 647-661, April.
    20. Jochen Gönsch & Michael Hassler, 2016. "Sell or store? An ADP approach to marketing renewable energy," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 38(3), pages 633-660, July.
    21. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Optimal operation value of combined wind power and energy storage in multi-stage electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1153-1168.
    22. Nur Sunar & John R. Birge, 2019. "Strategic Commitment to a Production Schedule with Uncertain Supply and Demand: Renewable Energy in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(2), pages 714-734, February.
    23. Jan Seifert & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2007. "Modelling jumps in electricity prices: theory and empirical evidence," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 59-85, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karakoyun, Ece Cigdem & Avci, Harun & Kocaman, Ayse Selin & Nadar, Emre, 2023. "Deviations from commitments: Markov decision process formulations for the role of energy storage," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Benedikt Finnah, 2022. "Optimal bidding functions for renewable energies in sequential electricity markets," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 44(1), pages 1-27, March.
    3. Xiaoshan Peng & Owen Q. Wu & Gilvan C. Souza, 2024. "Renewable, Flexible, and Storage Capacities: Friends or Foes?," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 26(5), pages 1730-1749, September.
    4. Finnah, Benedikt & Gönsch, Jochen & Ziel, Florian, 2022. "Integrated day-ahead and intraday self-schedule bidding for energy storage systems using approximate dynamic programming," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 301(2), pages 726-746.
    5. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    6. Weitzel, Timm & Glock, Christoph H., 2018. "Energy management for stationary electric energy storage systems: A systematic literature review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 264(2), pages 582-606.
    7. Yangfang (Helen) Zhou & Alan Scheller‐Wolf & Nicola Secomandi & Stephen Smith, 2019. "Managing Wind‐Based Electricity Generation in the Presence of Storage and Transmission Capacity," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 28(4), pages 970-989, April.
    8. Schrotenboer, Albert H. & Veenstra, Arjen A.T. & uit het Broek, Michiel A.J. & Ursavas, Evrim, 2022. "A Green Hydrogen Energy System: Optimal control strategies for integrated hydrogen storage and power generation with wind energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    9. Keles, Dogan & Dehler-Holland, Joris, 2022. "Evaluation of photovoltaic storage systems on energy markets under uncertainty using stochastic dynamic programming," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Jochen Gönsch & Michael Hassler, 2016. "Sell or store? An ADP approach to marketing renewable energy," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 38(3), pages 633-660, July.
    11. Anna Maria Gambaro & Nicola Secomandi, 2021. "A Discussion of Non‐Gaussian Price Processes for Energy and Commodity Operations," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(1), pages 47-67, January.
    12. Owen Q. Wu & Şafak Yücel & Yangfang (Helen) Zhou, 2022. "Smart Charging of Electric Vehicles: An Innovative Business Model for Utility Firms," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 24(5), pages 2481-2499, September.
    13. Kim, Seokwoo & Choi, Dong Gu, 2024. "A sample robust optimal bidding model for a virtual power plant," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(3), pages 1101-1113.
    14. Yashar Ghiassi-Farrokhfal & Rodrigo Belo & Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh & Derek Bunn, 2023. "Optimal Electricity Imbalance Pricing for the Emerging Penetration of Renewable and Low-Cost Generators," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 1966-1983, September.
    15. Alessio Trivella & Danial Mohseni-Taheri & Selvaprabu Nadarajah, 2023. "Meeting Corporate Renewable Power Targets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(1), pages 491-512, January.
    16. Fokkema, Jan Eise & uit het Broek, Michiel A.J. & Schrotenboer, Albert H. & Land, Martin J. & Van Foreest, Nicky D., 2022. "Seasonal hydrogen storage decisions under constrained electricity distribution capacity," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 76-91.
    17. Kaya, Anil & Conejo, Antonio J. & Rebennack, Steffen, 2026. "Fifty years of power systems optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 329(1), pages 1-23.
    18. Shinde, Priyanka & Aravena, Ignacio, 2026. "A bilevel multistage stochastic self-scheduling model with indivisibilities for trading in the continuous intraday electricity market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 328(3), pages 966-988.
    19. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dias, José Carlos & Nunes, João Pedro Vidal, 2021. "Modeling energy prices under energy transition: A novel stochastic-copula approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    20. Liu, Jian & Zhang, Jianwen & Gong, Zaiwu & Wunsch, Donald C. & Bo, Rui, 2025. "Analytical dispatch strategies for pumped storage hydro: A conditional dynamic programming approach to discontinuous multi-period optimization problems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 383(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:292:y:2026:i:c:s0925527325001811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.