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Seasonally modulated malaria transmission in diabetic and non-diabetic populations

Author

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  • Shivank,
  • Singh, Anurag
  • Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh
  • Sharma, Ajay K.

Abstract

Diabetes significantly alters malaria transmission dynamics, yet most epidemiological models treat these diseases independently. We present a seasonally modulated compartmental model capturing sinusoidally varying biting rates with differential transmission and recovery dynamics between diabetic and non-diabetic host populations. The model is calibrated using synthetic data parameterized from real-world epidemiological statistics and simulated over 36 months at daily resolution to resolve three complete seasonal transmission cycles. The basic reproduction number (R0) oscillated seasonally between 0.31 and 2.75, with an annual mean of 2.3. Diabetic individuals exhibited a two-fold slower recovery (122 vs. 61 days), sustaining infectious reservoirs that amplify seasonal epidemic peaks. The adjusted odds ratio of malaria infection in diabetics consistently ranged between 1.8 and 4.0, with diabetic peak prevalence reaching 35%–36% compared to 20%–21% in non-diabetics. Bifurcation analysis identified a critical transmission threshold near 0.08 bites/day; sensitivity analysis revealed the diabetic recovery rate to be seven-fold more influential for peak disease burden than for epidemic onset, indicating divergent strategies for elimination versus burden reduction. With India’s diabetic population projected to reach 157 million by 2050, these findings highlight the pressing need for seasonally targeted surveillance and intervention strategies that jointly address malaria and diabetes.

Suggested Citation

  • Shivank, & Singh, Anurag & Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh & Sharma, Ajay K., 2026. "Seasonally modulated malaria transmission in diabetic and non-diabetic populations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 697(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:697:y:2026:i:c:s0378437126003523
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2026.131616
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