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Dispersal, synchrony, and climate-induced tipping: Mechanisms of persistence and extinction in spatially structured predator–prey metapopulations

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  • Marick, Sounov
  • Saha, Suman
  • Bairagi, Nandadulal

Abstract

Climate change can drive abrupt and irreversible ecological transitions, pushing populations toward extinction through tipping phenomena. We develop a predator–prey metapopulation model where local patches exhibit bistability between oscillatory coexistence and extinction equilibria, with phase tipping induced by climatic declines in growth rates of prey. Extending tipping theory to spatially structured systems, we reveal how dispersal and climate-driven synchrony jointly determine persistence, extinction, and revival. Across regular, Erdős–Rényi, and scale-free networks, moderate dispersal promotes rescue and local recovery, whereas strong coupling through high dispersal or correlated climatic forcing synchronizes dynamics, amplifying global collapse. Our results highlight dispersal and climate-mediated synchrony as a central mechanism linking local tipping to landscape-scale extinction. This framework unifies the roles of dispersal and climate variability in shaping resilience, offering general insights into ecosystem stability under accelerating environmental change.

Suggested Citation

  • Marick, Sounov & Saha, Suman & Bairagi, Nandadulal, 2026. "Dispersal, synchrony, and climate-induced tipping: Mechanisms of persistence and extinction in spatially structured predator–prey metapopulations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 695(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:695:y:2026:i:c:s0378437126003626
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2026.131626
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