IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v691y2026ics0378437126002293.html

Beyond explosive prices: A spin-glass network approach to financial bubble formation

Author

Listed:
  • Georgescu, Irina
  • Kinnunen, Jani

Abstract

This paper proposes a systemic framework for analyzing financial bubbles that emphasizes structural market coordination rather than price explosiveness alone. We introduce a Systemic Bubble Pressure Index (SBPI) that captures time-varying synchronization, interaction heterogeneity, and network organization among financial assets. Using daily data for gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas from 2005 to 2025, we examine the dynamics of SBPI and compare it with the GSADF explosive price test. The results show that elevated SBPI regimes are associated with increased market synchronization, reduced heterogeneity, and weakened network modularity, often preceding episodes of explosive price behavior. The limited overlap between SBPI and GSADF indicates that structural pressure and price explosiveness capture distinct but complementary dimensions of bubble dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgescu, Irina & Kinnunen, Jani, 2026. "Beyond explosive prices: A spin-glass network approach to financial bubble formation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 691(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:691:y:2026:i:c:s0378437126002293
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2026.131493
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437126002293
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2026.131493?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:691:y:2026:i:c:s0378437126002293. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.