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Estimation of evacuation time for large-scale spatial areas: A two-stage mathematical model

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Songpei
  • Lv, Wei
  • Li, Di
  • Wang, Jinghui

Abstract

To address the challenges of accurately and efficiently estimating evacuation time in large-scale spatial areas using traditional evacuation models, this study develops a two-stage mathematical model for the rapid and precise calculation of large-scale evacuation durations. The model integrates regression analysis methods and traffic flow theory to calculate evacuation time based on two stages of pedestrian evacuation: the local gathering stage and the road transfer stage. To evaluate the feasibility and applicability of the model, multiple scenarios are established for comprehensive verification and analysis. The results demonstrate that the model can effectively capture the dynamic evolution of large-scale evacuation processes and compute evacuation times within a short period, achieving a balance between computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, the proposed model provides an efficient and practical tool for estimating evacuation durations and supporting decision-making in large-scale area emergency management.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Songpei & Lv, Wei & Li, Di & Wang, Jinghui, 2026. "Estimation of evacuation time for large-scale spatial areas: A two-stage mathematical model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 685(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:685:y:2026:i:c:s0378437126000440
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2026.131308
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