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Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 1: Evidence

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  • Richmond, Peter
  • Roehner, Bertrand M.

Abstract

In the wake of the influenza pandemic of 1889–1890 Jacques Bertillon, a pioneer of medical statistics, noticed that after the massive death spike there was a dip in birth numbers around 9 months later which was significantly larger than that which could be explained by the population change as a result of excess deaths. In addition it can be noticed that this dip was followed by a birth rebound a few months later. However having made this observation, Bertillon did not explore it further. Since that time the phenomenon was not revisited in spite of the fact that in the meanwhile there have been several new cases of massive death spikes. The aim here is to analyze these new cases to get a better understanding of this death–birth coupling phenomenon. The largest death spikes occurred in the wake of more recent influenza pandemics in 1918 and 1920, others were triggered by the 1923 earthquakes in Tokyo and the Twin Tower attack on September 11, 2001. We shall see that the first of these events indeed produced an extra dip in births whereas the 9/11 event did not. This disparity highlights the pivotal role of collateral sufferers. In the last section it is shown how the present coupling leads to predictions; it can explain in a unified way effects which so far have been studied separately, as for instance the impact on birth rates of heat waves. Thus, it appears that behind the apparent randomness of birth rate fluctuations there are in fact hidden explanatory factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Coupling between death spikes and birth troughs. Part 1: Evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 97-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:506:y:2018:i:c:p:97-111
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.04.044
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grégoire Rey & Anne Fouillet & Éric Jougla & Denis Hémon, 2007. "Vagues de chaleur, fluctuations ordinaires des températures et mortalité en France depuis 1971," Population (french edition), Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED), vol. 62(3), pages 533-563.
    2. repec:cai:poeine:pope_703_0457 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Herteliu, Claudiu & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1046-1061.
    2. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M. & Wang, Qing-hai, 2019. "The physics of large-scale food crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 274-293.

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    1. Herteliu, Claudiu & Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M., 2018. "Deciphering the fluctuations of high frequency birth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 1046-1061.
    2. Richmond, Peter & Roehner, Bertrand M. & Wang, Qing-hai, 2019. "The physics of large-scale food crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 274-293.

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