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Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

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  • Mohebbi, Negin
  • Najafi, Amir Abbas

Abstract

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohebbi, Negin & Najafi, Amir Abbas, 2018. "Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 1302-1316.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:492:y:2018:i:c:p:1302-1316
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2017.11.058
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vera Ivanyuk, 2022. "Methodology for Constructing an Experimental Investment Strategy Formed in Crisis Conditions," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-19, December.
    2. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Ferrer, Román & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2019. "Liquidity-adjusted value-at-risk optimization of a multi-asset portfolio using a vine copula approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    3. Pejman Peykani & Mojtaba Nouri & Mir Saman Pishvaee & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Emran Mohammadi, 2023. "Credibilistic Multi-Period Mean-Entropy Rolling Portfolio Optimization Problem Based on Multi-Stage Scenario Tree," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-23, September.
    4. Fernando García & Jairo González-Bueno & Javier Oliver & Nicola Riley, 2019. "Selecting Socially Responsible Portfolios: A Fuzzy Multicriteria Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-14, April.

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