IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v388y2009i12p2492-2502.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of Earth’s temperature

Author

Listed:
  • Halley, John M.

Abstract

Statistical processes with long-term persistence (LTP) offer a promising approach to modeling the natural dynamics of Earth’s temperature. One such process, the family of 1/f-noises, is used here to assess the plausibility of a natural origin for recent global warming. Following earlier studies, a model of natural variability with LTP is parameterized via paleoclimate reconstructions. The method developed here resolves a number of limitations in existing studies, primarily the problem of inaccuracies in estimating the spectral exponent of LTP. The output of the model is compared with the observed rate of temperature rise (0.61 ∘C/century between 1850 and 2007 for Northern hemispheric land air temperatures). We find that rates comparable with the observed global warming are very rarely generated by the model of natural variability (the probability is less than 2.3×10−4). Thus, natural agencies are not a plausible explanation for the observed global warming unless all the paleoclimate reconstructions through which the model is parameterized are underestimating natural variance by a factor of at least four.

Suggested Citation

  • Halley, John M., 2009. "Using models with long-term persistence to interpret the rapid increase of Earth’s temperature," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(12), pages 2492-2502.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:12:p:2492-2502
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2009.02.027
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437109001654
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2009.02.027?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-term persistence; Climate change;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:388:y:2009:i:12:p:2492-2502. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.