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Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic

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  • Fujie, Ryo
  • Odagaki, Takashi

Abstract

Within the standard SIR model with spatial structure, we propose two models for the superspreader. In one model, superspreaders have intrinsically strong infectiousness. In other model, they have many social connections. By Monte Carlo simulation, we obtain the percolation probability, the propagation speed, the epidemic curve, the distribution of secondary infected and the propagation path as functions of population and the density of superspreaders. By comparing the results with the data of SARS in Singapore 2003, we conclude that the latter model can explain the observation.

Suggested Citation

  • Fujie, Ryo & Odagaki, Takashi, 2007. "Effects of superspreaders in spread of epidemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 374(2), pages 843-852.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:374:y:2007:i:2:p:843-852
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2006.08.050
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2011. "Discovery of a missing disease spreader," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(20), pages 3412-3426.
    2. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2010. "Discovering network behind infectious disease outbreak," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4755-4768.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SARS; Superspreader; SIR model; Epidemic model;

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