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Long-range correlations and trends in global climate models: Comparison with real data

Author

Listed:
  • Govindan, R.B.
  • Vjushin, Dmitry
  • Brenner, Stephen
  • Bunde, Armin
  • Havlin, Shlomo
  • Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim

Abstract

We study trends and temporal correlations in the monthly mean temperature data of Prague and Melbourne derived from four state-of-the-art general circulation models that are currently used in studies of anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere: GFDL-R15-a, CSIRO-Mk2, ECHAM4/OPYC3 and HADCM3. In all models, the atmosphere is coupled to the ocean dynamics. We apply fluctuation analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis which can systematically overcome nonstationarities in the data, to evaluate the models according to their ability to reproduce the proper fluctuations and trends in the past and compare the results with the future prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Govindan, R.B. & Vjushin, Dmitry & Brenner, Stephen & Bunde, Armin & Havlin, Shlomo & Schellnhuber, Hans-Joachim, 2001. "Long-range correlations and trends in global climate models: Comparison with real data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 239-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:294:y:2001:i:1:p:239-248
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(01)00110-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Charakopoulos, A.K. & Katsouli, G.A. & Karakasidis, T.E., 2018. "Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 436-453.
    2. Zaks, Michael A., 2002. "Influence of noise on dynamics with fractal Fourier spectra," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 285-307.
    3. Dai, Meifeng & Hou, Jie & Ye, Dandan, 2016. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis based on fractal fitting: The long-range correlation detection method for highway volume data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 722-731.
    4. Fernanda Cimini & Jorge Britto & Leonardo Costa Ribeiro, 2020. "Complexity systems and middle-income trap: the long-term roots of Latin America underdevelopment [Sistemas complexos e armadilha da renda media: as raízes de longo prazo do subdesenvolvimento latino-a," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 30(spe), pages 1225-1256, December.

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