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Evaluating the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in non-endemic regions: A dynamic modeling approach

Author

Listed:
  • Stollenwerk, Nico
  • Mateus, Luís
  • Steindorf, Vanessa
  • Guerrero, Bruno V.
  • Blasco-Aguado, Rubén
  • Cevidanes, Aitor
  • Van-Dierdonck, Joseba Bidaurrazaga
  • Aguiar, Maíra

Abstract

Mosquito-borne diseases are spreading into temperate zones, raising concerns about local outbreaks driven by imported cases. Using stochastic methods, we developed a vector-host model to estimate the risk of import-driven autochthonous outbreaks in non-endemic regions. The model explores key factors such as imported cases and vector abundance. Our analysis shows that mosquito population abundance significantly affects the probability and timing of outbreaks. Even with moderate mosquito populations, isolated or clustered outbreaks can be triggered, highlighting the importance of monitoring vector abundance for effective public health planning and interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Stollenwerk, Nico & Mateus, Luís & Steindorf, Vanessa & Guerrero, Bruno V. & Blasco-Aguado, Rubén & Cevidanes, Aitor & Van-Dierdonck, Joseba Bidaurrazaga & Aguiar, Maíra, 2025. "Evaluating the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in non-endemic regions: A dynamic modeling approach," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:238:y:2025:i:c:p:1-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2025.04.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Skwara, Urszula & Mozyrska, Dorota & Aguiar, Maira & Stollenwerk, Nico, 2024. "Dynamics of vector-borne diseases through the lens of systems incorporating fractional-order derivatives," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    2. Liming Cai & Xuezhi Li, 2010. "Analysis of a Simple Vector-Host Epidemic Model with Direct Transmission," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2010, pages 1-12, May.
    3. Shlomit Paz, 2024. "Climate change: A driver of increasing vector-borne disease transmission in non-endemic areas," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 21(4), pages 1-3, April.
    4. Hadian Iman Sasmita & Kok-Boon Neoh & Sri Yusmalinar & Tjandra Anggraeni & Niann-Tai Chang & Lee-Jin Bong & Ramadhani Eka Putra & Amelia Sebayang & Christina Natalina Silalahi & Intan Ahmad & Wu-Chun , 2021. "Ovitrap surveillance of dengue vector mosquitoes in Bandung City, West Java Province, Indonesia," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, October.
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