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Persistence and seasonal long memory in unemployment in the United States

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  • de Oliveira Lima Cagliari Marques, Guilherme
  • Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto, Mateus

Abstract

We investigate the persistence of US unemployment applying seasonal fractional integration (FARISMA) models to assess both seasonal and non-seasonal long-range dependence. The analysis is carried out at three levels of data aggregation: state, regional census division, and national aggregation. Using wavelet multiresolution decomposition, we separate out irregular components to assess changes in persistence in unemployment dynamics. Our findings indicate strong evidence of hysteresis in US unemployment rates, with both seasonal and non-seasonal long memory contributing to the persistence of unemployment. These results are evidence that challenges the NAIRU hypothesis, suggesting that exogenous shocks to unemployment have prolonged effects that do not dissipate within a finite time horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • de Oliveira Lima Cagliari Marques, Guilherme & Gonzalez de Freitas Pinto, Mateus, 2025. "Persistence and seasonal long memory in unemployment in the United States," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s0927537125001423
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2025.102818
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