Assessing electricity security in Europe: A multi-scenario application of the global electricity security index

This study examines electricity security across 28 European countries from 2015 to 2024, applying a global framework to facilitate cross-country comparisons. The methodology considers system stability, accessibility, economic impacts of electricity prices, sustainable development, and governance quality. The study examines a baseline scenario and two additional scenarios: one focusing on power outages and another on household electricity prices. An extended GESI version also includes external dependence on imports. Scores are derived using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and equal weights. The results reveal that during the analysed period, electricity security varies from moderate to high among the studied countries. Notably, Northern and Western European nations generally perform better than Southern and Southeastern European countries. In all scenarios except Scenario 3, the electricity security index is primarily influenced by system stability and governance quality, while the economic impact of industrial electricity prices appears negligible. In Scenario 3, however, both the quality of governance and the economic impact of consumer electricity prices play significant roles in determining electricity security. This result indicates that the Global Electricity Security Index is highly sensitive to the chosen affordability indicator. The results remain consistent across all scenarios and weighting methods. Several policy implications arise from these findings. Energy policy should prioritise affordable electricity prices as a crucial aspect of electricity security, and there is a clear need for investment in network and distribution infrastructure.