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Understanding the future dynamics of renewable energy social Acceptance: Scenarios for Iran

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  • Hafezi, Reza
  • Rahimirad, Zohreh
  • Sadabadi, Ali Asghar
  • Wood, David A.

Abstract

Citizen participation is a key factor in the growth of renewable energy. This study explores how that participation might shape Iran's energy transition to 2040 by using a qualitative scenario method grounded in a matrix-based uncertainty analysis. A literature review and a focus group generated 51 potential drivers. A national panel (n = 61) rated each driver on importance and predictability (1–9), making it possible to identify key uncertainties and assumed trends. Findings show that social participation in renewable energy depends mainly on three uncertainties: (1) energy governance (centralized ↔ decentralized), (2) the energy-economy (cost-reflective pricing ↔ subsidized energy), and (3) infrastructure and asset ownership (citizen/co-ownership ↔ predominantly public). Based on the two most orthogonal axes, four internally consistent scenarios were developed. A follow-on policy panel (n = 21) stress-tested interventions, prioritizing nine policy levers. Economic and financial measures ranked highest, underlining that pricing reform and investment risk reduction are critical for achieving a socially accepted renewable energy transition. The study offers a transparent, reproducible pathway—from driver identification to scenario design and policy testing—tailored to Iran's context but adaptable to other settings facing similar uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Hafezi, Reza & Rahimirad, Zohreh & Sadabadi, Ali Asghar & Wood, David A., 2026. "Understanding the future dynamics of renewable energy social Acceptance: Scenarios for Iran," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:99:y:2026:i:c:s0957178725002504
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.102135
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