Price impacts of natural gas chokepoints on China: an energy security analysis of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, one of the most significant geopolitical events in recent years, has had profound and lasting effects on the global energy landscape, particularly the natural gas market. This study employs a difference-in-differences (DID) methodology to evaluate the impact of the conflict and EU emergency policies on natural gas prices in the EU, utilizing data from the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) for the period 2020–2024 divided into short, medium, and long-term phases. The findings reveal that (1) the conflict significantly drove up EU natural gas prices, with increases of 381.9 %, 271.6 %, and 172.7 % in the short, medium, and long terms, respectively, compared to the control group, demonstrating both persistent and diminishing effects; (2) implementing EU emergency policies initially resulted in a 396 % price increase compared to the control group, indicating a pronounced short-term negative impact that weakened over time; (3) rising prices of alternative energy sources continue to support increases in natural gas prices; and (4) a close geopolitical relationship with Russia may temporarily ease price pressures, while strong ties with Ukraine tend to elevate prices, though these effects quickly diminish. In conclusion, China should enhance the identification of strategic risks, design effective emergency plans considering potential adverse impacts, strengthen the construction of alternative energy systems and gas reserves, and leverage the rigid characteristics of its natural gas supply chain to improve overall resilience and efficiency.