IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/juipol/v96y2025ics0957178725000864.html

Modeling the impact of price and usage efficiency on domestic water demand in Saudi Arabia

Author

Listed:
  • Javid, Muhammad

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is twofold. First, it seeks to identify the key drivers of domestic water demand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by estimating two sets of water demand models covering 1994 to 2023. The first model relates water demand to water price, income, and population, while the second model adds water use efficiency (WUE) as an additional explanatory variable to assess its impact on future domestic water demand. Second, the paper projects Saudi Arabia's domestic water demand through 2050 based on the estimates derived from both models. The estimation results show that all coefficients are significant and align with theoretical expectations. The estimated price elasticities of water demand are −0.17 and −0.20 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. The estimated elasticity of WUE is −0.39. Projections based on Model 1 suggest that total domestic water demand will rise from 3.6 billion m3/year in 2023 to approximately 8.14 billion m3/year by 2050. The results indicate that domestic water demand in KSA could be reduced by 32 % through improvements in WUE and by 4 % through water price reforms. These findings underscore the significant role of WUE enhancements in managing domestic water demand in KSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Javid, Muhammad, 2025. "Modeling the impact of price and usage efficiency on domestic water demand in Saudi Arabia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:96:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000864
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2025.101971
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0957178725000864
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jup.2025.101971?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Esmaeil Ahmadi & Benjamin McLellan & Behnam Mohammadi-Ivatloo & Tetsuo Tezuka, 2020. "The Role of Renewable Energy Resources in Sustainability of Water Desalination as a Potential Fresh-Water Source: An Updated Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-31, June.
    2. Dinusha Dharmaratna & Edwyna Harris, 2012. "Estimating Residential Water Demand Using the Stone-Geary Functional Form: The Case of Sri Lanka," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2283-2299, June.
    3. Jasper M. Dalhuisen & Raymond J. G. M. Florax & JHenri L. F. de Groot & Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "Price and Income Elasticities of Residential Water Demand: A Meta-Analysis," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(2), pages 292-308.
    4. Yarela Flores Arévalo & Roberto D. Ponce Oliva & Francisco J. Fernández & Felipe Vásquez-Lavin, 2021. "Sensitivity of Water Price Elasticity Estimates to Different Data Aggregation Levels," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 2039-2052, April.
    5. Céline Nauges & Dale Whittington, 2010. "Estimation of Water Demand in Developing Countries: An Overview," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 263-294, August.
    6. Ruijs, A. & Zimmermann, A. & van den Berg, M., 2008. "Demand and distributional effects of water pricing policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 506-516, June.
    7. Céline Nauges & Alban Thomas, 2003. "Long-run Study of Residential Water Consumption," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 26(1), pages 25-43, September.
    8. Schleich, Joachim & Hillenbrand, Thomas, 2009. "Determinants of residential water demand in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1756-1769, April.
    9. R. Bruce Billings & Donald E. Agthe, 1980. "Price Elasticities for Water: A Case of Increasing Block Rates," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 56(1), pages 73-84.
    10. Nikoleta Jones & Konstantinos Evangelinos & Petros Gaganis & Eugenia Polyzou, 2011. "Citizens’ Perceptions on Water Conservation Policies and the Role of Social Capital," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(2), pages 509-522, January.
    11. Steven Buck & Maximilian Auffhammer & Stephen Hamilton & David Sunding, 2016. "Measuring Welfare Losses from Urban Water Supply Disruptions," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(3), pages 743-778.
    12. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    13. Vieira, Paula & Jorge, Catarina & Covas, Dídia, 2017. "Assessment of household water use efficiency using performance indices," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 94-106.
    14. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    15. Shin, Jeong-Shik, 1985. "Perception of Price When Price Information Is Costly: Evidence from Residential Electricity Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 591-598, November.
    16. Céline Nauges & Alban Thomas, 2000. "Privately Operated Water Utilities, Municipal Price Negotiation, and Estimation of Residential Water Demand: The Case of France," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 76(1), pages 68-85.
    17. Wichman, Casey J., 2014. "Perceived price in residential water demand: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PA), pages 308-323.
    18. Olmstead, Sheila M., 2009. "Reduced-Form Versus Structural Models of Water Demand Under Nonlinear Prices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 84-94.
    19. Lee, Mengshan & Tansel, Berrin & Balbin, Maribel, 2011. "Influence of residential water use efficiency measures on household water demand: A four year longitudinal study," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-6.
    20. Andrew C. Worthington & Mark Hoffman, 2008. "An Empirical Survey Of Residential Water Demand Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 842-871, December.
    21. Antonio Musolesi & Mario Nosvelli, 2007. "Dynamics of residential water consumption in a panel of Italian municipalities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 441-444.
    22. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    23. Sylvestre Gaudin & Ronald C. Griffin & Robin C. Sickles, 2001. "Demand Specification for Municipal Water Management: Evaluation of the Stone-Geary Form," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(3), pages 399-422.
    24. James J. Opaluch, 1982. "Urban Residential Demand for Water in the United States: Further Discussion," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(2), pages 225-227.
    25. David Hoyos & Alaitz Artabe, 2017. "Regional Differences in the Price Elasticity of Residential Water Demand in Spain," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(3), pages 847-865, February.
    26. Javid, Muhammad & Sharif, Fatima, 2016. "Environmental Kuznets curve and financial development in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 406-414.
    27. James Yoo & Silvio Simonit & Ann P. Kinzig & Charles Perrings, 2014. "Estimating the Price Elasticity of Residential Water Demand: The Case of Phoenix, Arizona," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 333-350.
    28. Carragher, Byron J. & Stewart, Rodney A. & Beal, Cara D., 2012. "Quantifying the influence of residential water appliance efficiency on average day diurnal demand patterns at an end use level: A precursor to optimised water service infrastructure planning," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 81-90.
    29. Stephen J. McIlwaine & Omar K. M. Ouda, 2020. "Drivers and challenges to water tariff reform in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 1014-1030, November.
    30. Renzetti, Steven & Dupont, Diane P. & Chitsinde, Tina, 2015. "An empirical examination of the distributional impacts of water pricing reforms," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 63-69.
    31. Kenneth A. Baerenklau & Kurt A. Schwabe & Ariel Dinar, 2014. "The Residential Water Demand Effect of Increasing Block Rate Water Budgets," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 683-699.
    32. Michael L. Nieswiadomy & David J. Molina, 1989. "Comparing Residential Water Demand Estimates under Decreasing and Increasing Block Rates Using Household Data," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 65(3), pages 280-289.
    33. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Tomas Vlach, 2018. "Measuring the Income Elasticity of Water Demand: The Importance of Publication and Endogeneity Biases," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(2), pages 259-283.
    34. John A. Nordin, 1976. "A Proposed Modification of Taylor's Demand Analysis: Comment," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 719-721, Autumn.
    35. Lester D. Taylor, 1975. "The Demand for Electricity: A Survey," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(1), pages 74-110, Spring.
    36. Olmstead, Sheila M. & Michael Hanemann, W. & Stavins, Robert N., 2007. "Water demand under alternative price structures," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 181-198, September.
    37. Nataraj, Shanthi & Hanemann, W. Michael, 2011. "Does marginal price matter? A regression discontinuity approach to estimating water demand," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 198-212, March.
    38. World Bank, 2019. "The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World," World Bank Publications - Reports 31416, The World Bank Group.
    39. Koichiro Ito, 2014. "Do Consumers Respond to Marginal or Average Price? Evidence from Nonlinear Electricity Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 537-563, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. María Ángeles García-Valiñas & Sara Suárez-Fernández, 2022. "Are Economic Tools Useful to Manage Residential Water Demand? A Review of Old Issues and Emerging Topics," Post-Print hal-04067487, HAL.
    2. Mónica Maldonado-Devis & Vicent Almenar-Llongo, 2021. "A Panel Data Estimation of Domestic Water Demand with IRT Tariff Structure: The Case of the City of Valencia (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-26, January.
    3. Milan Ščasný & Šarlota Smutná, 2021. "Estimation of price and income elasticity of residential water demand in the Czech Republic over three decades," Journal of Consumer Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 580-608, June.
    4. Ming-Feng Hung & Bin-Tzong Chie & Tai-Hsin Huang, 2017. "Residential water demand and water waste in Taiwan," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(2), pages 249-268, April.
    5. Ming-Feng Hung & Bin-Tzong Chie, 2013. "Residential Water Use: Efficiency, Affordability, and Price Elasticity," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 275-291, January.
    6. Henrique Monteiro, 2010. "Residential Water Demand in Portugal: checking for efficiency-based justifications for increasing block tariffs," Working Papers Series 1 ercwp0110, ISCTE-IUL, Business Research Unit (BRU-IUL).
    7. Darío F. Jiménez & Sergio A. Orrego & Felipe A. Vásquez & Roberto D. Ponce, 2017. "Estimating water demand for urban residential use using a discrete-continuous model and disaggregated data at the household level: the case of the city of Manizales, Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 153-178, Enero - J.
    8. Darío F. Jiménez & Sergio A. Orrego & Felipe A. V�squez & Roberto D. Ponce, 2016. "Estimación de la demanda de agua para uso residencial urbano usando un modelo discreto-continuo y datos desagregados a nivel de hogar: el caso de la ciudad de Manizales, Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 153-178.
    9. Joachim Schleich & Thomas Hillenbrand, 2019. "Residential water demand responds asymmetrically to rising and falling prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4973-4981, September.
    10. Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Tomas Vlach, 2018. "Measuring the Income Elasticity of Water Demand: The Importance of Publication and Endogeneity Biases," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 94(2), pages 259-283.
    11. Liang Lu & David Deller & Morten Hviid, 2019. "Price and Behavioural Signals to Encourage Household Water Conservation: Implications for the UK," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(2), pages 475-491, January.
    12. Michael O'Donnell & Robert P. Berrens, 2018. "Understanding Falling Municipal Water Demand in a Small City Dependent on the Declining Ogallala Aquifer: Case Study of Clovis, New Mexico," Water Economics and Policy (WEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(04), pages 1-40, October.
    13. Wichman, Casey J. & Taylor, Laura O. & von Haefen, Roger H., 2016. "Conservation policies: Who responds to price and who responds to prescription?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 114-134.
    14. Andrew C. Worthington & Mark Hoffman, 2008. "An Empirical Survey Of Residential Water Demand Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 842-871, December.
    15. Guillermo Ignacio Acuña & Cristián Echeverría & Alex Godoy & Felipe Vásquez, 2020. "The role of climate variability in convergence of residential water consumption across Chilean localities," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 22(1), pages 89-108, January.
    16. Wietelman, Derek & Wichman, Casey & Brent, Daniel A., 2025. "Conservation and Distributional Consequences of Pricing Scarce Water During Droughts," RFF Working Paper Series 25-07, Resources for the Future.
    17. Marie-Estelle Binet & Fabrizio Carlevaro & Michel Paul, 2014. "Estimation of Residential Water Demand with Imperfect Price Perception," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 59(4), pages 561-581, December.
    18. Liang Lu & David Deller & Morten Hviid, 2018. "Price and Behavioural Signals to Encourage Household Water Conservation in Temperate Climates," Working Paper series, University of East Anglia, Centre for Competition Policy (CCP) 2018-01, Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    19. Yarela Flores Arévalo & Roberto D. Ponce Oliva & Francisco J. Fernández & Felipe Vásquez-Lavin, 2021. "Sensitivity of Water Price Elasticity Estimates to Different Data Aggregation Levels," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 2039-2052, April.
    20. Roberto Balado‐Naves & María A. García‐Valiñas & David Roibás Alonso, 2025. "Assessing the efficiency of residential water demand: The role of information," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 556-585, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:96:y:2025:i:c:s0957178725000864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/utilities-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.