Impacts of extreme high temperatures on the energy transition: Disruption or promotion?

Climate change is occurring at a scale that exceeds our expectations and tolerance, and its impacts are far-reaching and severe, challenging the balance of nature and the adaptive capacity of human society. This trend has intensified the occurrence of extreme weather events. The frequent occurrence of extreme high-temperature events calls for a profound transformation of the energy system. This transformation is not only a response to climate change but also a key measure to promote sustainable economic development and build a green future. To this end, based on a sample of Chinese cities, this study employs a fixed-effects model to empirically examine the impact of extreme high temperatures on energy transition and its mechanisms, and further explores the nonlinear effects of extreme high temperatures on energy transition. The results show that extreme high temperatures significantly accelerate the energy transition process. Green innovation and environmental regulation play important mediating roles in the relationship between extreme high temperatures and the energy transition process. This promoting effect is more evident in the three major economic regions of China, resource-based cities, and cities with low climate policy uncertainty. Further analysis shows that cities that have long been exposed to high temperatures tend to exhibit adaptation when facing the occurrence of extreme high temperatures, which is not conducive to the advancement of energy transition. The nonlinear relationship indicates that in regions with better economic and green finance development, the transition process exhibits higher feasibility and smoother progress.