Prioritizing utility investments in contested corridors: A fuzzy-network analysis for Pakistan's power sector transition

Amidst escalating geopolitical stress, mounting fiscal pressures, and fragmented stakeholder interests, how can utility regulators prioritize infrastructure investments that are both immediately feasible and systemically transformative? This study answers this question by developing a novel hybrid analytical framework integrating Fuzzy MCDM with network analysis to prioritize strategic initiatives for the contentious CPEC Phase-II. A purposive Likert based survey of 400 experts including academia, policy analysts, industrial professionals and security experts were selected for data collection. The framework combines fuzzy TOPSIS and VIKOR for robust performance ranking under epistemic uncertainty, correlation-based network analysis to model structural interdependencies, and graph-theoretic permanent matrix validation to assess systemic influence. The results found a vital performance-structure dilemma: while the integrated security hub ranks highest on performance metrics, the EV ecosystem emerges as the network-structural core, forming a strong green development nexus with smart agriculture. The findings reframe security through its economic linkages, identify implementation feasibility as the key bridging criterion, and expose the systemic isolation of fiscal sustainability—a Fiscal Skepticism Paradox where financially concerned experts view all initiatives skeptically. Precisely, the integrated methodology advances decision-support by reconciling performance rankings with structural influence, demonstrating that infrastructure prioritization must account for both immediate feasibility and long-term systemic impact. Practically, the study prescribes a sequenced policy roadmap: pledge with the security hub to build immediate confidence through visible job creation, then pivot decisively to the network-central EV ecosystem to catalyze sustainable transformation. This provides a replicable tool for fostering legitimacy in complex, multi-stakeholder infrastructure governance in contested corridors.