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How does service reliability in Tanzanian mini-grids shape lessons for sustainable rural grid integration?

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  • Mwella, Beatrice
  • Mwammenywa, Ibrahim
  • Kihwele, Santos

Abstract

Reliable electricity supply is central to realizing the development potential of rural electrification, yet many mini-grids in sub-Saharan Africa experience persistently low electricity use after connections are established. This study examines how service reliability shapes electricity use, user behaviour, and system sustainability in a rural mini-grid context. Using a system-dynamics approach, a causal loop framework is developed to organize feedback linking reliability, appliance adoption, productive use, and willingness to pay. Empirical evidence from surveys and interviews in Matipwili village, Tanzania, shows that unreliable service leads users to restrict consumption, defer appliance investments, and rely on alternative energy sources, reinforcing low demand and weakening system revenues. Rather than reflecting limited interest in electricity, suppressed demand emerges as a behavioural response to service risk. By empirically illustrating reliability-behaviour-revenue feedback, the study contributes a theory-building perspective on demand suppression in rural mini-grids and highlights how similar dynamics may pose risks during transitions to national grid supply if reliability is not sustained.

Suggested Citation

  • Mwella, Beatrice & Mwammenywa, Ibrahim & Kihwele, Santos, 2026. "How does service reliability in Tanzanian mini-grids shape lessons for sustainable rural grid integration?," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:101:y:2026:i:c:s0957178726000482
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2026.102189
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