Prediction of energy consumption and carbon emission in Yunnan Province based on LEAP modeling

In response to the increasingly severe greenhouse effect, this study takes Yunnan Province as a representative case and applies the LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) model to predict regional energy consumption and carbon emissions under multiple scenarios, thereby simulating energy–emission trajectories and identifying pathways toward carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. The results indicate that under the Baseline Scenario, carbon emissions in Yunnan Province will continue to rise, making it challenging to achieve carbon peaking. However, with government intervention, the growth of energy consumption and carbon emissions can be effectively controlled, with carbon emissions peaking in 2030 at 226.3 Mt CO2, representing a reduction of 71.8 Mt CO2 compared with the Baseline Scenario. Additionally, the industrial sector is the primary contributor to both energy demand and emissions in Yunnan Province, accounting for over 65.3% of energy demand and over 75.3% of carbon emissions. Implementing effective emission reduction measures in the industrial sector will facilitate Yunnan Province's achievement of carbon peaking. The scenario analysis in this study provides quantitative evidence for formulating regional energy policies and offers a practical reference for sustainable development planning in other provinces.