The optimal allocation and the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Shendong mining area

Coal mining has consumed a large amount of water resources in China, and the entire industrial chain of coal production has a larger consumption of water resources than the past especially in Shendong mining area. The water resources carrying capacity determines the scale of coal industry development. The previous research had been conducted at the national, provincial and municipal levels, but there were few studies on the water resources carrying capacity of coal mining areas. The Shendong mining area is located in the coal-rich and water-scarce western region, where precipitation is low and evaporation is high. As a water-scarce area, the development of Shendong mining area is inseparable from the support of coal resources and the rational use of water resources. Therefore, firstly, taking the Shendong mining area as the research object, this paper set high, medium and low scenarios according to the development goals of Shendong mining area, Shenhua Group and the plans of China. The gray forecast model was used to predict the water demand of the economic-social-ecological system of the mining area from 2020 to 2030 under different scenarios. Secondly, a multi-objective optimization model was established with the objective function to optimize the water resources allocation in Shendong mining area. Thirdly, based on the forecast and optimization results, a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model was constructed to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of the Shendong mining area. Finally, based on the results, the suggestions for rational development and the utilization of water resources in the Shendong mining area were proposed.