What drives sustainable food choices? Testing policies with agent-based modelling

The transition toward a sustainable food industry necessitates significant shifts in consumer behaviour, yet such change remains difficult due to the complex interplay of cognitive, economic, and social factors. This study develops an integrated agent-based model (ABM) to simulate consumer adoption of sustainable food products, incorporating behavioural determinants identified through a structural equation model (SEM) that captures key variables influencing adoption decisions: environmental awareness, knowledge, price sensitivity, and perceived social norms. The ABM represents a heterogeneous artificial population in which agents make probabilistic consumption choices based on their attribute profiles and are subject to dynamic social influence via spatially proximate interactions, while policy interventions are operationalised within the model through information diffusion (awareness campaigns), norm amplification (peer influence enhancement), and economic incentives (price subsidies). An experimental design is employed to assess both individual and combined intervention effects on adoption dynamics, with results indicating that all three interventions yield statistically significant increases in sustainable product adoption rates. Norm reinforcement emerges as the most impactful standalone intervention, while combined strategies, particularly those integrating normative and informational components, exhibit nonlinear synergistic effects. The model also captures the diffusion of awareness across the agent network, highlighting the role of social dynamics in accelerating behavioural transitions. This research contributes to sustainability science by integrating behavioural modelling and simulation to assess the effectiveness of policy interventions and offers practical insights for the design of coordinated strategies that address both individual-level motivations and social mechanisms, supporting more effective efforts to foster sustainable food consumption.