A framework for disrupting extremist recruitment in a developing country: Mapping pathways and prioritizing interventions

Rising extremism in the region proves to be a critical challenge for developing countries such as Pakistan. In such a scenario, extremism is deeply rooted in society, and to counter it, the country requires an accurate understanding of its driving factors, along with effective counter-extremism strategies. To achieve this, the research employs a novel integrated Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) model i.e., DEMATEL-FUCOM-VIKOR framework to identify the root causes and prioritize strategic solutions. The study evaluates eight driving factors and reveals that economic despair, political agendas, and cultural discrimination are collectively responsible for the extremist influence in the country. Similarly, after evaluating countermeasures, family counseling and youth engagement programs emerge as the optimal strategies, depicting superior risk reduction and complementary actions such as countering kinship radicalization and socioeconomic triggers, along with addressing the governance voids and ideological recruitment. The study also recommends directing approximately 70 % of the government resources to scale counseling units and the establishment of youth hubs in the high-risk areas. It will also help to integrate vocational training with youth programs to counter excessive poverty. This novel application provides policymakers with an actionable blueprint for employing culturally congruent, resource-effective counter-extremism initiatives.