IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joreco/v87y2025ics0969698925002206.html

Consumer behavior and market substitution in the automobile retail sectors of Russia and China amidst global economic sanctions and uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Ishumbaev, Konstantin
  • Zhu, Zhen
  • Ileye, Yasin
  • Armah, Abdul Karim

Abstract

This study investigates how global economic sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty influence Consumer Market Substitution Behavior (CMSB) in the automobile sectors of China and Russia: two economies that have become focal points of Western sanctions and industrial policy shifts. By integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the Resource-Based View (RBV), the study models how consumer-behavioral perception constructs such as Economic Sanctions Pressure (ESP), Supply Chain Vulnerability Awareness (SCVA), Nationalistic Purchase Intent (NPI), and Perceived Brand Resilience (PBR) shape consumers’ brand-switching decisions. The results, derived from a partial least squares structural equation model using survey data from five major cities across both countries, show that ESP, SCVA, NPI, and PBR all significantly influence CMSB. ESP exerts the strongest direct effect, underscoring the powerful role of geopolitical constraints in shaping consumer choices. PBR significantly mediates the SCVA→CMSB and NPI→CMSB pathways, reinforcing the importance of brand credibility and operational reliability in substitution behavior. Multi-group analysis reveals no statistically significant differences between China and Russia in path strength, suggesting generalizability of the model across sanctioned markets. However, contextual insights indicate that Chinese consumers place slightly more emphasis on brand resilience and nationalistic sentiment, while Russian consumers are more influenced by direct market constraints. Practically, these insights emphasize the need for governments to bolster national branding and domestic production capabilities. For firms, emphasizing resilience, local value chains, and patriotic narratives can foster consumer loyalty in geopolitically strained environments. In sum, CMSB under sanctions is driven by both external pressure and internal brand signaling, making perception management critical for competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Ishumbaev, Konstantin & Zhu, Zhen & Ileye, Yasin & Armah, Abdul Karim, 2025. "Consumer behavior and market substitution in the automobile retail sectors of Russia and China amidst global economic sanctions and uncertainty," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:87:y:2025:i:c:s0969698925002206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jretconser.2025.104441
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969698925002206
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jretconser.2025.104441?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xin Zhao & Russell W. Belk, 2008. "Politicizing Consumer Culture: Advertising's Appropriation of Political Ideology in China's Social Transition," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 231-244, June.
    2. Tiansheng Yang & Ken Peattie & Jean-Paul Skeete & Nicole Koenig-Lewis, 2024. "Navigating Transitions: How Electric Vehicle Sharing Is Shaping Sustainable Mobility in Chinese Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-21, September.
    3. Sergey Sosnovskikh, 2021. "A new form of parallel trading within economics relations between Russia and China," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 94-118, January.
    4. Ye Yang & Zhongfu Tan, 2019. "Investigating the Influence of Consumer Behavior and Governmental Policy on the Diffusion of Electric Vehicles in Beijing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-20, December.
    5. Appiah, Dominic & Howell, Kerry E. & Ozuem, Wilson & Lancaster, Geoff, 2019. "Building resistance to brand switching during disruptions in a competitive market," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 249-257.
    6. Anita Pansari & V. Kumar, 2017. "Customer engagement: the construct, antecedents, and consequences," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 294-311, May.
    7. Spielmann, Nathalie & Maguire, Jennifer Smith & Charters, Steve, 2020. "Product patriotism: How consumption practices make and maintain national identity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 389-399.
    8. Meyer, Klaus E. & Fang, Tony & Panibratov, Andrei Y. & Peng, Mike W. & Gaur, Ajai, 2023. "International business under sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(2).
    9. Rebecca Hamilton & Linda L. Price, 2019. "Consumer journeys: developing consumer-based strategy," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 187-191, March.
    10. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-11.
    11. Pami Aalto & Tuomas Forsberg, 2016. "The structuration of Russia’s geo-economy under economic sanctions," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 221-237, June.
    12. repec:cup:maorev:v:15:y:2019:i:01:p:177-199_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Anton Filipenko & Olena Bazhenova & Roman Stakanov, 2020. "Economic Sanctions: Theory, Policy, Mechanisms," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 6(2).
    14. Vasily Astrov & Mahdi Ghodsi & Richard Grieveson & Mario Holzner & Artem Kochnev & Michael Landesmann & Olga Pindyuk & Robert Stehrer & Maryna Tverdostup & Alexandra Bykova, 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: assessment of the humanitarian, economic, and financial impact in the short and medium term," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 331-381, May.
    15. Sheth, Jagdish, 2020. "Impact of Covid-19 on consumer behavior: Will the old habits return or die?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 280-283.
    16. Alexis Antoniades & Sofronis Clerides & Mingzhi Xu, 2023. "Micro‐responses to shocks: pricing, promotion, and entry," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(3), pages 584-615, July.
    17. Douglas Dow & Ilya R. P. Cuypers, 2024. "The influence of societal nationalist sentiment on trade flows," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(1), pages 64-98, March.
    18. Sun, Fei & Qu, Zhaojun & Wu, Ban & Bold, Sanchir, 2024. "Enhancing global supply chain distribution resilience through digitalization: Insights from natural resource sector of China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    19. Kim, Mi-jin & Lee, Heejin & Kwak, Jooyoung, 2020. "The changing patterns of China’s international standardization in ICT under techno-nationalism: A reflection through 5G standardization," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    20. Ajai Gaur & Alexander Settles & Juha Väätänen, 2023. "Do Economic Sanctions Work? Evidence from the Russia‐Ukraine Conflict," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(6), pages 1391-1414, September.
    21. Diana Rodrigues & Bruno Sousa & Sofia Gomes & José Oliveira & Eunice Lopes, 2023. "Exploring Consumer Behavior and Brand Management in the Automotive Sector: Insights from a Digital and Territorial Perspective," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-13, January.
    22. Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
    23. Yao, Yao (Alex) & Yang, Sha & Sudhir, K., 2024. "Separating substitution and psychological effects of price with a two-step conjoint approach: Application to luxury goods," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 344-361.
    24. Karl V. Lins & Henri Servaes & Ane Tamayo, 2017. "Social Capital, Trust, and Firm Performance: The Value of Corporate Social Responsibility during the Financial Crisis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1785-1824, August.
    25. Tan, Kang Miao & Yong, Jia Ying & Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K. & Mansor, Muhamad & Teh, Jiashen & Guerrero, Josep M., 2023. "Factors influencing global transportation electrification: Comparative analysis of electric and internal combustion engine vehicles," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    26. Armah, Abdul Karim & Li, Jinfa & Wei, Mengdi, 2025. "Effect of infrastructure and technological factors on slum online commerce and product delivery: A structural functionalism perspective," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    27. Rebecca Freeman & Richard Baldwin, 2022. "Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 153-180, August.
    28. Teece, David J., 2019. "China and the Reshaping of the Auto Industry: A Dynamic Capabilities Perspective," Management and Organization Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 177-199, March.
    29. Martin Heinberg & Constantine S. Katsikeas & H. Erkan Ozkaya & Markus Taube, 2020. "How nostalgic brand positioning shapes brand equity: differences between emerging and developed markets," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 48(5), pages 869-890, September.
    30. Gary Gereffi & Hyun-Chin Lim & Joonkoo Lee, 2021. "Trade policies, firm strategies, and adaptive reconfigurations of global value chains," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 4(4), pages 506-522, December.
    31. Katharina Petra Zeugner-Roth & Vesna Žabkar & Adamantios Diamantopoulos, 2015. "Consumer Ethnocentrism, National Identity, and Consumer Cosmopolitanism as Drivers of Consumer Behavior: A Social Identity Theory Perspective," Post-Print hal-01563043, HAL.
    32. Angappa Gunasekaran & Nachiappan Subramanian & Shams Rahman, 2015. "Supply chain resilience: role of complexities and strategies," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(22), pages 6809-6819, November.
    33. Oh, Seung-Youn, 2021. "China's Race to the Top: Regional and Global Implications of China's Industrial Policy," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 169-185, May.
    34. Badran, Moustapha & Awada, Mohamed & Darwiche, Joanna & Boungou, Whelsy, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    35. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    36. Phua, Peilin & Kennedy, Rachel & Trinh, Giang & Page, Bill & Hartnett, Nicole, 2020. "Examining older consumers’ loyalty towards older brands in grocery retailing," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    37. Armah, Abdul Karim & Li, Jinfa, 2023. "Generational cohorts’ social media acceptance as a delivery tool in sub-Sahara Africa motorcycle industry: The role of cohort technical know-how in technology acceptance," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    38. Shuai Zhang & Kai Huang & Yufei Yuan, 2021. "Spare Parts Inventory Management: A Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-23, February.
    39. Arne Nygaard, 2023. "The Geopolitical Risk and Strategic Uncertainty of Green Growth after the Ukraine Invasion: How the Circular Economy Can Decrease the Market Power of and Resource Dependency on Critical Minerals," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 1099-1126, June.
    40. Srivastava, Ankur & Gautam, Vikas & Sharma, Vikram, 2023. "Does consideration for future consequences matter in consumer decision to rent electric vehicles?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    41. Simon J. Evenett & Niccolò Pisani, 2023. "Geopolitics, conflict, and decoupling: evidence of Western divestment from Russia during 2022," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(4), pages 511-540, December.
    42. D. V. Korneeva & A. V. Ovchinnikov, 2024. "Assessing the Prospects for Import Substitution in the Russian Automotive Components Market," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 35(6), pages 834-844, December.
    43. Shim, Yongwoon & Shin, Dong-Hee, 2016. "Neo-techno nationalism: The case of China’s handset industry," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 197-209.
    44. Mobin Zarreh & Mohammad Khandan & Alireza Goli & Adel Aazami & Sebastian Kummer, 2024. "Integrating Perishables into Closed-Loop Supply Chains: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-45, August.
    45. Victoria Golikova & Boris Kuznetsov, 2017. "Perception of risks associated with economic sanctions: the case of Russian manufacturing," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 49-62, January.
    46. Zhongneng Ma & Ching-Tsung Jen & Adel Aazami, 2025. "Time-Dependent Vehicle Routing Optimization Incorporating Pollution Reduction Using Hybrid Gray Wolf Optimizer and Neural Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-27, May.
    47. Moustapha Badran & Mohamed Awada & Joanna Darwiche & Whelsy Boungou, 2025. "How do geopolitical risks and uncertainty shape US consumer confidence?," Post-Print hal-05083249, HAL.
    48. Jun, Seung-Pyo & Park, Do-Hyung, 2016. "Consumer information search behavior and purchasing decisions: Empirical evidence from Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 97-111.
    49. Armstrong, J. Scott & Overton, Terry S., 1977. "Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys," MPRA Paper 81694, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    50. Vasiliy Starostin & Evgeniy Samokhodkin & Alisa Elzon, 2020. "Changing Consumer and Brand Behavior in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Russia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 531-543.
    51. Nicholas Borst, 2025. "China’s Economic Contradictions," Springer Books, in: The Bird and the Cage, chapter 0, pages 163-232, Springer.
    52. Boris Bartikowski & Fernando Fastoso & Heribert Gierl, 2021. "How Nationalistic Appeals Affect Foreign Luxury Brand Reputation: A Study of Ambivalent Effects," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 169(2), pages 261-277, March.
    53. Julian Thimme, 2017. "Intertemporal Substitution In Consumption: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 226-257, February.
    54. Alain Verbeke & Régis Coeurderoy & Tanja Matt, 2018. "The future of international business research on corporate globalization that never was…," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(9), pages 1101-1112, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daniel S. Andrews & Stav Fainshmidt & Michael A. Witt & Ajai Gaur, 2025. "Foreign policy: implications for multinational firms," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 105-119, March.
    2. Roh, Taewoo & Seok, Junhee & Kim, Yaeri, 2022. "Unveiling ways to reach organic purchase: Green perceived value, perceived knowledge, attitude, subjective norm, and trust," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Thein, Htwe Htwe & Grosman, Anna & Sosnovskikh, Sergey & Klarin, Anton, 2024. "Should we stay or should we exit? Dilemmas faced by multinationals under sanctioned regimes," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6).
    4. Schaefers, Tobias & Falk, Tomas & Kumar, Ashish & Schamari, Julia, 2021. "More of the same? Effects of volume and variety of social media brand engagement behavior," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 282-294.
    5. Dang, Quyen Thao & Rammal, Hussain Gulzar & Ghauri, Pervez N. & Jasovska, Pavlina & Velasquez, Santiago, 2024. "‘Caught in the middle’: Effects on and reactions of Vietnamese timber exporters in the context of US-China economic sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(6).
    6. Fayyaz, Muhammad Shahzeb & Abbasi, Amir Zaib & Kumar, Sanjeev & Qureshi, Ammar & Hussain, Khalil & Muhammad, Lakhi, 2025. "Integrating digital influencer persuasion model and theory of planned behavior: The mediating role of consumer involvement in endorsed brands," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Nicholas Bamegne Nambie & Philomena Dadzie & Dorcas Oye Haywood-Dadzie, 2023. "Measuring the Effect of Income Inequality, Financial Inclusion, Investment, and Unemployment, on Economic Growth in Africa: A Moderating Role of Digital Financial Technology," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 111-124, July.
    8. Sumon Kumar Bhaumik & Nigel Driffield & Saul Estrin & Zarlasht M. Razeq, 2025. "Geopolitical alignment, outside options, and inward FDI: an integrated framework and policy pathways," Journal of International Business Policy, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(2), pages 137-154, June.
    9. Peluso, Alessandro M. & Pichierri, Marco & Pino, Giovanni, 2021. "Age-related effects on environmentally sustainable purchases at the time of COVID-19: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Lingling Gao & Kerem Aksel Waechter, 0. "Examining the role of initial trust in user adoption of mobile payment services: an empirical investigation," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-24.
    11. Kazeminia, Azadeh & Hultman, Magnus & Mostaghel, Rana, 2016. "Why pay more for sustainable services? The case of ecotourism," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 4992-4997.
    12. Queiroz, Maciel M. & Fosso Wamba, Samuel, 2019. "Blockchain adoption challenges in supply chain: An empirical investigation of the main drivers in India and the USA," International Journal of Information Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-82.
    13. Mainardes, Emerson Wagner & Coutinho, Ananda Raquel Silva & Alves, Helena Maria Batista, 2023. "The influence of the ethics of E-retailers on online customer experience and customer satisfaction," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Barnard, Helena & Luiz, John M., 2024. "The South African economic elite and ownership changes in foreign multinationals’ assets during and after Apartheid-era sanctions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 59(5).
    15. Soni, Sigma & Arora, Parvinder & Kasilingam, Dharun & Jain, Varsha, 2025. "Digital daydreams: Exploring consumer motivations for engaging with the metaverse," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Ying Teng & Kuo-Chung Shang & Hui-Chih Wang & Szu-Yu Kuo & Chin-Shan Lu, 2025. "The implementation of blockchain adoption in China’s manufacturing industry: the technology organization environment (TOE) method," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    17. Hao Zhang & Jie He & Xiaomeng Shi & Qiong Hong & Jie Bao & Shuqi Xue, 2020. "Technology Characteristics, Stakeholder Pressure, Social Influence, and Green Innovation: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Express Companies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-19, April.
    18. Secinaro, Silvana & Calandra, Davide & Lanzalonga, Federico & Ferraris, Alberto, 2022. "Electric vehicles’ consumer behaviours: Mapping the field and providing a research agenda," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 399-416.
    19. Madeleine Feder & Barbara E. Weißenberger, 2019. "Understanding the behavioral gap: Why would managers (not) engage in CSR-related activities?," Journal of Management Control: Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 95-126, April.
    20. Yang, You-hong & Gao, Ping & Zhou, Haimei, 2023. "Understanding the evolution of China's standardization policy system," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joreco:v:87:y:2025:i:c:s0969698925002206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-retailing-and-consumer-services .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.