Consumer behavior and market substitution in the automobile retail sectors of Russia and China amidst global economic sanctions and uncertainty

This study investigates how global economic sanctions and geopolitical uncertainty influence Consumer Market Substitution Behavior (CMSB) in the automobile sectors of China and Russia: two economies that have become focal points of Western sanctions and industrial policy shifts. By integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) with the Resource-Based View (RBV), the study models how consumer-behavioral perception constructs such as Economic Sanctions Pressure (ESP), Supply Chain Vulnerability Awareness (SCVA), Nationalistic Purchase Intent (NPI), and Perceived Brand Resilience (PBR) shape consumers’ brand-switching decisions. The results, derived from a partial least squares structural equation model using survey data from five major cities across both countries, show that ESP, SCVA, NPI, and PBR all significantly influence CMSB. ESP exerts the strongest direct effect, underscoring the powerful role of geopolitical constraints in shaping consumer choices. PBR significantly mediates the SCVA→CMSB and NPI→CMSB pathways, reinforcing the importance of brand credibility and operational reliability in substitution behavior. Multi-group analysis reveals no statistically significant differences between China and Russia in path strength, suggesting generalizability of the model across sanctioned markets. However, contextual insights indicate that Chinese consumers place slightly more emphasis on brand resilience and nationalistic sentiment, while Russian consumers are more influenced by direct market constraints. Practically, these insights emphasize the need for governments to bolster national branding and domestic production capabilities. For firms, emphasizing resilience, local value chains, and patriotic narratives can foster consumer loyalty in geopolitically strained environments. In sum, CMSB under sanctions is driven by both external pressure and internal brand signaling, making perception management critical for competitiveness.