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The value of product-specific first-meet coupons: Enhancing customer acquisitions and sales through causal forest

Author

Listed:
  • Fang, Cheng
  • Zhou, Yong-Wu
  • Feng, Xiaojing
  • Wang, Kedi

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of product-specific first-meet coupons, a targeted promotional strategy designed at the product level to attract new customers with various coupon face values across products, on key market outcomes on the online retail platform. Leveraging a unique dataset from a leading Asian online retail platform, spanning three months of transactions across 14,672 products, 760 brands, and over 28 million customers, we employ propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods within a quasi-experimental framework. Our results demonstrate that first-meet coupons significantly boost new customer acquisition and sales volume without spiking product returns. Heterogeneity analyses reveal that the impact is particularly pronounced for well-known brands, products with moderate discounts or high word-of-mouth volume, and middle-aged female consumers. Building on these findings, we utilize a causal forest model to optimize product-level discount strategies, enhancing customer acquisition efficiency. Our study provides actionable insights to help retail platforms design more effective promotional policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fang, Cheng & Zhou, Yong-Wu & Feng, Xiaojing & Wang, Kedi, 2026. "The value of product-specific first-meet coupons: Enhancing customer acquisitions and sales through causal forest," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jomega:v:142:y:2026:i:c:s0305048326000174
    DOI: 10.1016/j.omega.2026.103528
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