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Dynamic linkages between circular economy, green technologies, and energy transition under geopolitical shocks: Evidence from wavelet and non-parametric causality approaches

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  • Hua, Li
  • Boulanouar, Zakaria
  • Bilal, Ahmer
  • Ullah, Sami

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic interlinkages between the circular economy (CE), green technologies (GT), and geopolitical risk (GPR) in shaping the global energy transition (ET). Using daily time-series data from July 2, 2019, to March 31, 2023, we apply rolling window wavelet correlation and non-parametric Granger causality to uncover how recent economic shocks, particularly the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, alter these relationships. The results reveal that CE and GT exert a consistent positive influence on ET, while GPR tends to have a negative and asymmetric effect. These effects vary significantly across time horizons and quantiles, highlighting the need to account for non-linear and scale-dependent dynamics. Causality tests confirm the predictive power of CE, GT, and GPR for ET across most distributional segments. The findings offer actionable insights for designing resilient energy transition policies that integrate innovation, circularity, and geopolitical adaptability.

Suggested Citation

  • Hua, Li & Boulanouar, Zakaria & Bilal, Ahmer & Ullah, Sami, 2026. "Dynamic linkages between circular economy, green technologies, and energy transition under geopolitical shocks: Evidence from wavelet and non-parametric causality approaches," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:33:y:2026:i:c:s1703494925000416
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2025.e00441
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