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Intraday volatility transmission in global energy markets: A Bayesian nonparametric approach

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  • Zaharieva, Martina Danielova
  • Virbickaitė, Audronė
  • Santos, André Portela

Abstract

We specify a volatility transmission model for international energy markets that divides a global trading day into three distinct trading zones, allowing us to investigate the heat wave and meteor shower hypotheses proposed in Engle et al. (1990). The resulting multivariate GARCH model is specified using a highly flexible semiparametric Bayesian framework with non-Gaussian innovations, designed to deal with asymmetry and heavy tails found in financial time series. The empirical results for the oil and natural gas futures markets suggest that volatility transmission is a combination of effects that are both related to volatility in the same region and volatility in the region immediately preceding it. Furthermore, accounting for the fat-tailed behavior not only dramatically improves the in-sample fit, but also helps to uncover additional cross-market (or cross-country) effects and gives us further insights into the exact channels through which energy shocks are transmitted throughout the world. Finally, accounting for both heat wave and meteor shower effects within a non-Gaussian framework leads to substantial improvements in the accuracy of Value-at-Risk estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaharieva, Martina Danielova & Virbickaitė, Audronė & Santos, André Portela, 2025. "Intraday volatility transmission in global energy markets: A Bayesian nonparametric approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:39:y:2025:i:c:s2405851325000406
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100496
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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