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Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians

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  • Anderson, Matthew J.
  • Sunder, Shyam

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  • Anderson, Matthew J. & Sunder, Shyam, 1995. "Professional Traders as Intuitive Bayesians," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 185-202, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:64:y:1995:i:2:p:185-202
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    1. Davis, James H., 1992. "Some compelling intuitions about group consensus decisions, theoretical and empirical research, and interpersonal aggregation phenomena: Selected examples 1950-1990," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 3-38, June.
    2. Wright, William F. & Anderson, Urton, 1989. "Effects of situation familiarity and financial incentives on use of the anchoring and adjustment heuristic for probability assessment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 68-82, August.
    3. Ono, Kaoru & Tindale, R. Scott & Hulin, Charles L. & Davis, James H., 1988. "Intuition vs. deduction: Some thought experiments concerning Likert's linking-pin theory of organization," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 135-154, October.
    4. Ritov, Ilana, 1996. "Anchoring in Simulated Competitive Market Negotiation," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 16-25, July.
    5. Diekmann, Kristina A. & Tenbrunsel, Ann E. & Shah, Pri Pradhan & Schroth, Holly A. & Bazerman, Max H., 1996. "The Descriptive and Prescriptive Use of Previous Purchase Price in Negotiations," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 179-191, May.
    6. Kameda, Tatsuya & Davis, James H., 1990. "The function of the reference point in individual and group risk decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 55-76, June.
    7. Argote, Linda & Seabright, Mark A. & Dyer, Linda, 1986. "Individual versus group use of base-rate and individuating information," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 65-75, August.
    8. Huber, Vandra L. & Neale, Margaret A., 1986. "Effects of cognitive heuristics and goals on negotiator performance and subsequent goal setting," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 342-365, December.
    9. repec:bla:joares:v:19:y:1981:i:1:p:120-145 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Stone, Dan N. & Ziebart, David A., 1995. "A Model of Financial Incentive Effects in Decision Making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 250-261, March.
    11. Davis, Harry L & Hoch, Stephen J & Ragsdale, E K Easton, 1986. " An Anchoring and Adjustment Model of Spousal Predictions," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 25-37, June.
    12. Sniezek, Janet A., 1992. "Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 124-155, June.
    13. Sniezek, Janet A. & Henry, Rebecca A., 1989. "Accuracy and confidence in group judgment," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-28, February.
    14. Sniezek, Janet A., 1988. "Prediction with single event versus aggregate data," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 196-210, April.
    15. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
    16. Stasser, Garold, 1992. "Information salience and the discovery of hidden profiles by decision-making groups: A "thought experiment"," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 156-181, June.
    17. Switzer, Fred S. & Sniezek, Janet A., 1991. "Judgment processes in motivation: Anchoring and adjustment effects on judgment and behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 208-229, August.
    18. Block, Richard A. & Harper, David R., 1991. "Overconfidence in estimation: Testing the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 188-207, August.
    19. Whyte, Glen, 1993. "Escalating Commitment in Individual and Group Decision Making: A Prospect Theory Approach," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 430-455, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Felipe Perez-Marti, 2000. "Private Experience in Adaptive Learning Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(2), pages 283-310, April.
    2. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Shehata, Mohamed, 1997. "Market behavior in the presence of costly, imperfect information: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-74, May.
    3. repec:pit:wpaper:489 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jean Baratgin & Guy Politzer, 2006. "Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, June.
    5. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2000. "Psychological Traits and Trading Strategies," CSEF Working Papers 39, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    6. Potters, Jan & van Winden, Frans, 2000. "Professionals and students in a lobbying experiment: Professional rules of conduct and subject surrogacy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 499-522, December.
    7. Steven Kachelmeier & Kristy Towry, 2005. "The Limitations of Experimental Design: A Case Study Involving Monetary Incentive Effects in Laboratory Markets," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 8(1), pages 21-33, April.
    8. Enrique Fatas & Tibor Neugebauer & Pilar Tamborero, 2007. "How Politicians Make Decisions: A Political Choice Experiment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 92(2), pages 167-196, October.
    9. Ananda Ganguly & John Kagel & Donald Moser, 2000. "Do Asset Market Prices Reflect Traders' Judgment Biases?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 219-245, May.
    10. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2009. "Is the lure of choice reflected in market prices? Experimental evidence based on the 4-door Monty Hall problem," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 203-215, April.
    11. Bruno Biais & Denis Hilton & Karine Mazurier & Sébastien Pouget, 2005. "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 287-312.
    12. Ying Luo, Guo, 2013. "Can representativeness heuristic traders survive in a competitive securities market?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 152-164.
    13. Jamal, Karim & Sunder, Shyam, 1996. "Bayesian equilibrium in double auctions populated by biased heuristic traders," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 273-291, November.
    14. Felipe Pérez, 1998. "- Private Experience In Adaptive Learning Models," Working Papers. Serie AD 1998-03, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    15. Enrique Fatás & Tibor Neugebauer & Pilar Tamborero, 2004. "How politicians make decisions under risk: a political choice experiment," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2004/58, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    16. Libby, Robert & Bloomfield, Robert & Nelson, Mark W., 2002. "Experimental research in financial accounting," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 775-810, November.
    17. Theo Offerman, 2002. "Efficiency in Auctions with Private and Common Values: An Experimental Study," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 625-643, June.
    18. Tuttle, Brad & Coller, Maribeth & Burton, F. Greg, 1997. "An examination of market efficiency: Information order effects in a laboratory market," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 89-103, January.
    19. Park, Sungsoon & Rothrock, Ling, 2007. "Systematic analysis of framing bias in missile defense: Implications toward visualization design," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1383-1398, November.
    20. Nelson, Mark W. & Bloomfield, Robert & Hales, Jeffrey W. & Libby, Robert, 2001. "The Effect of Information Strength and Weight on Behavior in Financial Markets," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 168-196, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General

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