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Digital safeguards in trade wars: assessing the impact of China’s CBEC pilot zone on global supply chain resilience

Author

Listed:
  • Ding, Haoyuan
  • Huang, Daming
  • Li, Zida
  • Lu, Xingyu

Abstract

This study explores whether China Cross-Border E-Commerce (CBEC) Comprehensive Pilot Zone served as a cushion for global supply chains against the shock of the China-U.S. trade war. Leveraging micro-level supply chain data and a difference-in-differences design, we find participation in CBEC Comprehensive Pilot Zone reduces supply chain disruptions by 4.1 percentage points – equivalent to a 53 % decline relative to the mean, and the mitigating effect is particularly pronounced for non-U.S. trade partners and industries not directly targeted by tariffs. Further analysis identifies four underlying mechanisms: (1) easing financial constraints, (2) reducing information costs and negotiation costs, (3) leveraging trade infrastructure, and (4) synergies with customers’ institutional quality. Moreover, firms in CBEC comprehensive pilot zones also establish more U.S. relationships in non-targeted industries, exhibiting lower costs and higher operational efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Haoyuan & Huang, Daming & Li, Zida & Lu, Xingyu, 2026. "Digital safeguards in trade wars: assessing the impact of China’s CBEC pilot zone on global supply chain resilience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:162:y:2026:i:c:s0261560626000148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2026.103529
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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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