The spatial spillover effect of the multi-school zoning policies

Local governments in China have implemented a series of education and real estate policies to promote educational equity and mitigate the escalation of housing prices within school attendance zones. This paper examines the spatial spillover effects of changes in the probability of school enrollment, stemming from the implementation of the Multi-School Zoning Policies in Xicheng district, Beijing, on housing prices in neighboring districts. We first present a theoretical model and derive testable predictions. Subsequently, we utilize transaction-level data on previously owned homes to evaluate spillover effects in addition to direct treatment effects. A flexible event study model is employed to incorporate both the anticipatory effect induced by the early policy announcement and the post-treatment effect. Our findings highlight significant negative direct impacts on Xicheng’s average total home sale price (1.5 % to 2.8 %) and noteworthy positive spillover effects on home sale prices in neighboring districts (1.1 % to 1.6 %). Furthermore, the spillover effect operates as a general equilibrium effect, being more pronounced for housing units in better school attendance zones and that are smaller and closer to Xicheng district. Our findings suggest that in formulating regional policies to stabilize housing prices, policy makers should account for spillover effects to ensure that these policies align with the broader objectives of a larger region.